We expect the banged-up Seattle Seahawks to give the San Francisco 49ers a tough game as we make our NFL Thanksgiving Day parlay predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Thanksgiving Day in the NFL features three matchups, all with point spreads of a touchdown or more, yet the showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers promises a compelling spectacle. With a record of 6-4 and having suffered two losses in their recent three games, the Seahawks are eager for a win to catch up with the 7-3 49ers, who are currently leading the NFC West standings. The game holds significant stakes in shaping the divisional standings and is poised to deliver intense drama as both teams vie for supremacy within the NFC West.
To make things even more exciting throughout the day and to accompany our NFL Thanksgiving predictions, we’ve identified props in each of the games as our best NFL Thanksgiving parlay predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Best NFL Thanksgiving parlay predictions
David Montgomery Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns (-124) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Detroit Lions’ fifth-ranked running attack moved the ball well again last week on the ground, averaging more than five yards per carry against a tough Chicago Bears front. At the center of it all was Montgomery, who scampered for 76 yards on just 12 attempts and provided the game-winning touchdown with 29 seconds left on the clock.
The Green Bay Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the league this season, partially because their consistent slow starts mean they’re often playing from behind. Nine of the 19 touchdowns the Packers have allowed this year have come via the run, and they’re giving up an average of one rushing touchdown per game on the road.
Although Montgomery shares a lot of carries with teammate Jahmyr Gibbs, he still receives the bulk of the carries near the goal line, finding the end zone in all but one of the Lions’ games this season. Each of those majors have come on the ground, so I’ll look to save 30 cents of juice by playing Montgomery’s over 0.5 rushing touchdowns prop at -124 instead of paying a -150 premium on the anytime touchdown.
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Micah Parsons Over 0.5 sacks (-260) ⭐⭐⭐
After finishing second in last year’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds voting with a career-high 13.5 sacks, Parsons already has 10 through 10 games this season. The Dallas Cowboys’ star linebacker had 2.5 sacks in last week’s 33-10 win over the Carolina Panthers, the seventh time in nine games that he has gotten home on an opposing quarterback.
With the Cowboys having won their last two games by a combined margin of 82-27 and sitting as double-digit favorites once again this week, Parsons should get plenty of opportunities to pad those numbers against the Washington Commanders. No quarterback in the NFL throws the ball more than Washington’s Sam Howell, who has been dropped at least three times in three straight games and four times or more in eight of 11 outings this year.
Caesars and many of our other best sports betting sites hadn’t posted a sacks prop for Parsons as of Wednesday morning, but a few shops were offering this line in the -260 range. I’d be comfortable paying up to -300 juice to include this in our NFL Thanksgiving Parlay.
Our Phil Wood dives further into this matchup with his Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions.
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Seattle Seahawks +8.5 (-145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
With the San Francisco 49ers having won their last two games by a combined 61-17 margin while the Seattle Seahawks have lost two of three, most bettors are looking towards the visiting Niners in this key NFC West battle. Seattle’s also dealing with several significant injuries on offense, with running back Kenneth Walker III likely to miss Thursday’s game due to an oblique injury and quarterback Geno Smith hoping to play through a triceps bruise.
However, it’s not often that you find the Seattle Seahawks as a touchdown underdog at home, and with good reason. Seattle rarely gets blown out at Lumen Field, suffering just one defeat by more than one possession in the last two years and only three in the last four seasons.
As dominant as the 49ers have been in recent years, they’ve had trouble winning by margin on the road against NFC West foes who are familiar with their schemes. San Francisco has won just one of its last 12 division road games by more than one score, and you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find the last time the Niners won in Seattle by more than eight points.
Brenden Schaeffer breaks down this matchup with his top 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction.
NFL Thanksgiving parlay: +315 via Caesars
NFL Thanksgiving parlay picks made Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET
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