Packers vs. Lions NFL Player Props, Odds for Thanksgiving: Picks & Predictions
Thanksgiving Day in the NFL starts with the annual tradition of the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers in the first game of the day, and we offer our best Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving NFL player props for Week 12 based on the best NFL odds.
In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers moved to a 4-6 record following a hard-fought 23-20 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. Notably, that marked their initial game without a turnover since Week 2, showcasing improved ball security. Additionally, the Packers achieved their highest single-game point total since Week 2, putting up 23 points in an impressive offensive display.
This year's Detroit team, boasting an 8-2 start, is the most talented seen hosting a Thanksgiving Day game since 1962. Last week, the Lions, trailing the Chicago Bears 26-14 with 4:15 remaining, orchestrated a comeback by scoring 17 points in the final 2:59 to secure the victory. Entering Week 12 with a 2.5-game lead in the NFC North, Detroit aims for its first five-game winning streak against the Packers since 1949-54.
To accompany our Packers vs. Lions prediction and NFL player props and best bets for Thanksgiving, here are our best Packers vs. Lions NFL player props for Week 12 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Lions NFL player props: Thanksgiving
Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-124 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
The Lions beat the Packers 34-20 in Week 4 this season, but Jared Goff also had one of his worst statistical games, with season-lows in completions (19) and passing yards (210). Detroit scored four rushing touchdowns in that game, and after building such a big first-half lead, Goff only attempted eight passes in the second half. We expect the Packers to be much more competitive this time, which should benefit Goff's passing success.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Green Bay plays Cover 3 at the third-highest rate on passing plays. Goff excels against Cover 3, ranking in the top four in yards per attempt (8.8) and passer rating (104.9) and throwing an NFL-best 11 touchdowns against that coverage.
While the Packers have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns, the Lions have the second-highest rate of their scoring plays being touchdowns (71.1%).
This is a three-star play, as the Over has cashed in seven of Detroit's last 11 Thanksgiving games. Considering Goff is 20-7 ATS in his previous 27 indoor games, that bodes well for the Lions' chances of offensive success. Bettors cannot beat the -124 price to back the Over at BetRivers, as the juice is as high as -151 at Caesars for the same wager.
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Jordan Love anytime touchdown scorer (+700 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Jordan Love has scored two rushing touchdowns this season, and while none have come in the last six games, he did find the endzone in the Week 4 matchup against Detroit. With Aaron Jones (MCL sprain) and Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) dealing with injuries, the Packers were forced to sign two running backs to the practice squad this week. AJ Dillon has yet to prove he can handle being a bell-cow running back, so we expect Love to help out the running game with his legs.
Love has not been under more pressure this season than he was against the Lions in Week 4, who forced pressure on 48.8% of dropbacks, per Sharp Football Analysis. Eluding pressure bodes well for Love's opportunities for scrambles, as when he had a clean pocket against Detroit, he was 17-for-22 passing for 198 yards.
While we would not put anyone off the Over of Love's 14.5 rushing yards, we are much more enticed by the +700 odds for him to score a rushing touchdown that you can get by using our FanDuel promo code, considering those odds are as low as +350 at BetMGM.
Love running one in would definitely help the Packers keep this within the 7.5-point spread, something that we touch on in our Thanksgiving Best Bets.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If we expect Goff to throw for two or more touchdowns, we surely love the plus-money odds that bet365 is offering for his leading receiver to score a touchdown.
St. Brown has been a model of consistency this season, either totaling 100 yards or scoring a touchdown in every game. Brown had a season-low five catches against the Packers in Week 4, but their best cover cornerback, Jaire Alexander, has missed five of the previous 10 games and did not play last week, and the team has also since traded Rasul Douglas.
That should open up plenty of opportunities for St. Brown, who has the league's third-highest target rate (29.6%). In addition, based on the previous Cover 3 statistics where Goff excelled, St. Brown also ranks third in receiving yards (358) in that split.
Some of our best sports betting apps are not offering plus-money odds for this wager, but the +110 line at bet365 has us racing to the betting window.
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Packers vs. Lions player props made 11/22/2023 at 6:07 a.m. ET.
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