In the final game of Week 12, the Minnesota Vikings host the rival Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football in quarterback Justin Fields' second start back from injury, and we're taking advantage with our Justin Fields player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Heading into Week 12, the Chicago Bears (3-8) are on a 12-game losing streak in divisional games and have yet to beat an NFC North opponent under head coach Matt Eberflus, losing all nine tries. Even with QB Justin Fields back last week, the team dropped to 1-6 in his seven starts after blowing a 26-14 lead in the fourth quarter to the division rival Detroit Lions.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings (6-5) saw their five-game winning streak end last week with a 21-20 defeat to the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. The Vikings have won their last five games against the Bears and could extend this to six consecutive wins on Monday night, which would be the second-longest streak in franchise history.
To complement our Josh Dobbs player prop picks, Bears-Vikings prop picks, and Bears-Vikings prediction, here are our best Justin Fields NFL player prop predictions for the Bears vs. Vikings Week 12 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Justin Fields Under 17.5 completions (-118 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Fields Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Fields longest completion Over 33.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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Justin Fields player props
Justin Fields Under 17.5 completions (-118 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Chicago may be a 3-8 football team, but the amount of time it's trailed has not deterred its running game. The Bears average nearly 60 more rushing yards per game than their opponents, the second-highest difference in the NFL.
Justin Fields was on track for a poor passing day in the Week 6 loss to the Vikings, as he completed 6-of-10 passes and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt while posting a 12.7 QBR (his worst of the season).
On defense last season, Minnesota allowed 25.1 points per game, 123.1 rushing yards per game, and 265.5 passing yards while blitzing 25% of the time. This season, the Vikings allow 20.9 points per game, 94.0 rushing yards per game, and 226.6 passing yards while blitzing an NFL-high 47.2% of the time.
Thus, we expect a run-heavy approach from the Bears to take Minnesota’s aggressiveness away, and there should not be too much negative game script that would necessitate Fields to pass more than usual, given that the Vikings are moderate 3.5-point favorites.
BetMGM and DraftKings offered +105 odds to back the Under of 16.5 completions earlier in the week, but they have since aligned with our other best sports betting apps, and BetRivers is the only shop offering lower than -120 odds to back the Under of 17.5 completions.
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Bears vs. Vikings bonus codes
Justin Fields Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For fantasy football purposes, Fields has been a top-10 quarterback in his previous three full starts, as he has thrown for four touchdowns in two of those. However, Fields’ fantasy numbers are consistently buoyed by solid rushing production, as he has run for 53-plus yards in two of his last three full starts.
Fields was well on his way to a big rushing day before getting injured early in the second half against Minnesota, as he totaled 46 yards on the ground on eight carries. The Vikings rank sixth-worst in success rate against quarterback runs. The amount of blitzing they do leaves them susceptible to running lanes with fewer defenders left to tackle the quarterback after he eludes the initial rush.
Justin Fields longest completion Over 33.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Once again, this is a wager we like because of how frequently Minnesota blitzes, especially since Fields is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt and a 7.0% touchdown rate when blitzed this season, per Sharp Football Analysis.
Fields connected with DJ Moore for a 39-yard completion against a stingy Lions defense last week, and Fields has had a 39-yard completion or longer in three straight starts, including one of his six completions in Week 6 against the Vikings going for 39 yards to Darnell Mooney.
We expect Chicago to lull the Vikings' defense to sleep with the running game and then hit at least one explosive pass play despite its limited passing volume. In addition, Minnesota has allowed 100-yard receiving days to four players this year, so there is precedent for its pass defense being vulnerable.
DraftKings charges a slightly worse price at -120, so we are placing this at bet365.
Justin Fields player prop picks made 11/27/2023 at 6:11 a.m. ET.
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