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Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass as we share our best Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott player props.
Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass in the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images via AFP.

The Washington Commanders visit the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East clash as the second game of the NFL's Thanksgiving tripleheader, and we have our best Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction based on the best NFL odds.

In Week 11, the New York Giants secured a 31-19 victory over the Washington Commanders, with quarterback Sam Howell throwing three interceptions. The defense struggled, allowing Giants QB Tommy DeVito to accumulate 246 passing yards and three touchdowns. Our NFL Best Bets for Thanksgiving foresee Howell encountering similar difficulties on Thursday.

Last Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys dominated the Carolina Panthers, clinching a 33-10 victory. Their defense proved formidable, limiting the Panthers to 187 total yards. The Cowboys have demonstrated impressive performances in their recent wins, with their last three victories all by 23 points or more.

In addition to our Commanders vs. Cowboys NFL player props and Dak Prescott NFL player props, we have our best Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction: Thanksgiving

Over 48.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Considering what the Cowboys have done in their last three wins, covering 11 points against a Commanders team that just lost at home to the Giants seems like a no-brainer. But four of the Commanders' seven losses have been in one-score games, and two of those performances came against the Philadelphia Eagles, while another came two weeks ago against the Seattle Seahawks. That loss to the Seahawks came after Chase Young and Montez Sweat were traded.

Howell has established himself as one of the league’s most stereotypical gunslingers. He’s fourth in the league in passing yards per game and tied for sixth in passing touchdowns. But for all those good numbers, he’s also tied for the league lead in interceptions. His presence makes it hard to determine how the Commanders will fare against the spread in any game. One thing the Commanders will likely try to utilize is Brian Robinson out of the backfield; we think he could break off another long reception in this one in our Commanders vs. Cowboys player props.

Whether the Cowboys win by 20-plus points for the fourth game in a row or by just seven, this will be a high-scoring game. The Cowboys are averaging 30.2 points per game, and they’re about to face a defense that has allowed 29 and 31 in their last two games. The Cowboys have also let up some points in their blowout victories this season. The Giants scored 17 on them two weeks ago, and the Los Angeles Rams scored 20 in a game that was 33-9 at halftime.

Neither of these teams runs the ball particularly well, so this should be a pass-heavy game featuring plenty of chunk yardage plays. Additionally, Howell’s inability to take care of the ball will give the Cowboys excellent field position, and Dak Prescott and the offense will capitalize on like they have all season. 

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Commanders vs. Cowboys best odds

FanDuel (-105)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 48.5Over 48.5Over 48.5Over 48.5Over 48.5
-110-105-110-110-110

Our best sports betting apps all have this number listed at 48.5 after it opened at 45. FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a better price than -110, so that’s the obvious place to wager.

This number will continue to climb, so we recommend getting in early. If you miss FanDuel at -105, we recommend playing any number up to 50 at the best price available to you across our best sports betting sites

Commanders vs. Cowboys odds for Thanksgiving

Commanders vs. Cowboys odds analysis

The look-ahead line showed the Cowboys favored by 9.5, but after what the Commanders did on Sunday against the Giants, the spread has grown to 11 in less than 24 hours. This line should continue to grow as the public reacts to what took place in Week 11. 

The total opened at 45 but quickly jumped to 48.5 at our best sportsbooks. Before their 31 points last week, the Giants hadn’t scored more than 20 in a game since Week 2. If New York could dominate the Commanders’ defense like that in Week 11, imagine what Dak Prescott and company will be able to do. We expect that question to be why this number continues to climb before kickoff.

Commanders vs. Cowboys game info

  • When: Thursday, Nov. 23 at 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors

Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction made Monday at 12:38 p.m. ET

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