We think that backing both Washington's and Dallas' passing offensive is a valuable strategy on Thanksgiving as we make our Commanders vs. Cowboys NFL player props for Week 12 based on the best NFL odds.
The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) stand as massive favorites over the Washington Commanders (4-7), but there's a possibility that both quarterbacks could shine under the bright lights of a Thanksgiving game.
Furthermore, we anticipate Brian Robinson continuing his surprising run as one of the top-receiving running backs in the league.
Along with our NFL Thanksgiving predictions and Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions, here are our best Commanders vs. Cowboys NFL player props for Week 12 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Commanders vs. Cowboys NFL player props: Thanksgiving
Dak Prescott Over 275.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Washington secondary has been one of the most attackable units in the NFL this season as the Commanders have allowed 258.3 yards per game. Only the Bucs and Chargers have allowed more passing yards per game to their opponents.
Without Ezekiel Elliott to lean on in this year’s Turkey Day game, I’m looking for Dak Prescott to continue his recent trajectory in this plus-matchup. Dak has cleared this passing line in three of his past four games and should put on a show at home on Thursday.
Most of our recommended sportsbooks offer Prescott’s passing line at 278.5 yards, but we’re getting a better value at FanDuel, which offers the line at 275.5 yards. You’re not losing anything on the odds at FanDuel, either, as their -114 odds are better than some of the best sports betting apps that offer lesser value on the passing total.
We think that he may get it done in the touchdown department, too, as we discuss in our Commanders vs. Cowboys Dak Prescott player props.
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Sam Howell Over 251.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sam Howell’s passing yardage prop feels extremely attainable for the quarterback who currently leads the league in passing yards on the season. Howell has cleared this passing line seven times on the season, doing so in four consecutive games heading into Thursday.
The impediment here is the strength of the Dallas defense. The Cowboys allow only 157.1 passing yards per game, ranking as the second-best passing defense in the NFL. But in a game script that is expected to see Howell playing from behind in the second half, I like him to clear this line in garbage time given his proclivity for those types of performances this year.
Similar to the way it lined up for Dak Prescott’s prop, the majority of our best sports betting sites list the Howell passing line a little bit higher than what we’re seeing at FanDuel. Most of the books have the line at 254.5 passing yards, while FanDuel checks in at 251.5 yards, which is more favorable for Over bettors. With -114 odds at FanDuel, I prefer playing the prop there rather than the -110 odds on 254.5 yards at bet365.
Brian Robinson longest reception Over 11.5 yards (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The lack of Brian Robinson receiving props available across our best sportsbooks as of Wednesday afternoon is a disappointment. We can’t seem to find any books offering receiving yardage or reception totals for the workhorse Washington running back.
For a running back ranking fourth in the NFL in receiving yards entering the week, you’d think the books would have offerings on him. We did find an option from DraftKings that we’re going to attack, and it's Robinson’s longest reception, with the line set at 11.5 yards with -125 odds on Over.
Robinson is getting plenty of opportunity in the passing game, drawing 15 targets over the past two weeks while racking up explosive plays as a receiver. Robinson’s longest reception over the past two games has gone for 21 yards and 51 yards, respectively. Against a Dallas defense that should stuff the run, I like Robinson to find room for another big play as a receiver in a projected negative game script.
Commanders vs. Cowboys player props made Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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