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Bills vs. Saints Week 12 Picks: Buffalo Primed to Bounce Back on Thanksgiving

Bills vs. Saints Week 12 Picks: Buffalo Primed to Bounce Back on Thanksgiving
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills. Photo by Joshua Bessex / Getty Images via AFP.

The Thanksgiving Day football feast ends with a delicious matchup between two playoff hopefuls. Check out who we favor in our Buffalo Bills versus New Orleans Saints picks.

Buffalo and New Orleans enter Thursday’s finale needing a win in the worst way. The Bills dropped two of their last three games and are now looking up at the New England Patriots in the AFC East race. The Saints have lost three straight for the first time since 2016 and are in danger of falling out of the NFC playoff picture.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Bills and Saints (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Saints Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Nov. 25, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Weather: Indoors

Bills vs. Saints Odds Analysis

The line opened with the Bills favored by 4.5 points, but can be found at -5 for Buffalo at Circa. The total was first listed at 48 points and dropped to 46 by Tuesday.

The Bills are 5-4-1 against the spread this season and 4-4 ATS when favored by at least 4.5. Their matchups have surpassed 48 points on five occasions, including the last two games.

New Orleans is 5-5 ATS this season, but 4-1 as an underdog. The Saints won outright against the favored Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and covered the three-point spread in a 23-21 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. The Over cashed in each of their last four games.

Bills vs. Saints Picks

Bills -4.5 (-110) ★★★
Under 47 (-110) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Raiders vs. Cowboys Week 12 NFL Picks

Bills vs. Saints Predictions

Bills -4.5 (-110)

Though the Saints have thrived in the underdog role and are always dangerous when playing at home in prime time, they're hitting the toughest two-game stretch of their schedule at the most inopportune time. They've been ravaged by injuries and the backups being asked to play bigger roles are coughing up the football. Quarterback Trevor Siemian threw two interceptions in Sunday's 40-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and veteran RB Mark Ingram lost a fumble.

They'll have to get their act together against a Bills defense that ranks second in takeaways and points allowed per game.

Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled of late as well. Five of his eight interceptions have come in his last three games. He has dialed back his rushing duties, but expect him to try to take advantage of a Saints defense that just allowed Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to run for three scores on Sunday.

The Bills average the second-most points scored per game at 29.5 per contest.

Under 47 (-110)

We're backing the Under in a matchup that features two top-10 defenses and two offenses struggling to regain their form. The Bills enter the game leading the league in total defense, averaging 283.7 yards allowed per game, and ranked second in pass defense, surrendering just 181.8 yards through the air. The Saints own the league's 10th-ranked defense and third-ranked rush defense.

However, both clubs are coming off games in which they gave up a 40 burger. The Bills were gashed by the Indianapolis Colts' ground game to the tune of 264 yards on 5.7 yards per carry. While the Saints would like to follow suit with a similar game plan, they simply don't have the bodies to do so. Starting tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead sat out Sunday due to knee injuries and are considered questionable to make the quick turnaround for Thursday's game. Star RB Alvin Kamara did not practice Monday because of a knee injury of his own. He's missed the last two games due to an MCL sprain.

It won't be a walk in the park for the Buffalo offense, either. Its sputtering run game faces one of the league's better run defenses, and while the Saints are vulnerable to yards through the air, they allow just 21.8 points per game to rank 10th in the NFL.

We're backing the Under in our Bills and Saints picks and we're taking the extra point at Caesars to get the number at 47.

SEE ALSO: All NFL picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Bills-Saints Picks made 11/23/2021 at 9:05 a.m. ET