Best NFL Week 1 Predictions: Rounding Up Our Most-Confident Picks for Sunday
After the Detroit Lions claimed the first win of the 2023 season in upset fashion over the Kansas City Chiefs, our best NFL Week 1 predictions are here to help ensure you have a profitable Sunday when betting the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites.
Whether you were riding with the Kansas City Chiefs or Detroit Lions for Thursday Night Football, our NFL betting experts are here to help you enjoy a successful NFL Sunday when wagering at our best sports betting apps.
Our expert team has you covered from their NFL best bets for Week 1 to their favorite NFL upset picks, and player props for Sunday.
Best NFL Week 1 predictions
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Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown scorer vs. Colts (+162 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence guided the team to a 9-8 record in 2022—the franchise's first winning season in five years—primarily because of how well he meshed with his receivers. Christian Kirk (1,108 yards), Zay Jones (823 yards), and Evan Engram (766 yards) all produced career highs in receiving yards. And now the Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley, who has recorded 248 receptions, 3,342 yards, and 28 touchdowns across 49 career games.
Ridley ranked sixth in receiving touchdowns from 2018 to 2020, while Lawrence was red-hot starting in Week 9 in 2022, ranking second in the NFL in completion percentage (70%) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (15-2).
This is a four-star play because Lawrence seemed to enjoy an instant connection with Ridley during the preseason, completing all five of his pass attempts to him for 71 yards and 14.2 yards per attempt.
The +162 odds at bet365 are excellent value since Ridley is as low as +125 at DraftKings to score a touchdown.
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— NFL best bets made by Mike Spector
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Colts +5 (-110 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐⭐
I'm not quite ready to just anoint the Jacksonville Jaguars after they won a weak AFC South last year, especially since they needed to win the final five regular-season games to do so. Lawrence is great, and last year's comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the postseason was impressive, but the market might be inflating the Jags a bit too much at this point.
On the other side, I think the market is underrating the Indianapolis Colts. It's easy to forget that Indianapolis was everyone's default answer to win the AFC South just 12 months ago when Matt Ryan was the starting quarterback. Ryan committed 28 turnovers in 12 games, but that's not the only unlucky trait the Colts had last year.
According to this NFL preview guide from ClevAnalytics, the Colts went 4-6 in one-score games and 1-4 in games when they held a 70% or more win probability in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis was on the wrong side of variance last year, and it's leading to a lower outlook for this team.
— Jaguars vs. Colts prediction made by Shane Jackson
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Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+105 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I can say with certainty that there will be few occurrences this season when bettors will be able to find a Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown prop at plus money.
The Vikings' superstar receiver and defending Offensive Player of the Year is coming off a season in which he led the league with 1,809 receiving yards and added eight touchdowns. That may seem like a modest touchdown total, but he was often double-teamed as the primary focus of the Vikings offense.
Jefferson opened last season with a bang. He hauled in 11 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win over the Green Bay Packers.
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— Buccaneers vs. Vikings prediction made by Michael McClymont
Ravens -9.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Baltimore Ravens have long been built on the strength of their menacing defense and that was the case once again in Baltimore last season. The Ravens ranked an NFL third in scoring defense, allowing just 18.8 points per game en route to a 10-win season.
But the offense wasn’t consistent in 2022. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman wore out his welcome as Baltimore was downright anemic moving the ball. With an ailing quarterback Lamar Jackson, tight end Mark Andrews, and wideout Rashod Bateman, there wasn’t much left.
The Ravens addressed those issues, adding wide receivers Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. while bringing in Georgia OC Todd Monken to run their offense. Jackson expects to helm an aerial attack that brings him back to his MVP level of productivity. If this takes place in Week 1, the Texans are doomed.
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— Texans vs. Ravens prediction made by Brenden Schaeffer
Upset: Titans (+150 via bet365) vs. Saints ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The betting market always seems to disrespect Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans, even though they've finished with a losing record just once in the last seven campaigns. That trend is continuing during the 2023 season opener, as Tennessee is a field-goal underdog to a Saints team that went 7-10 in 2022 and is playing without Alvin Kamara.
Tennessee went 7-10 last year as well, but that record is misleading because the Titans were regularly without quarterback Ryan Tannehill and many other starters. Tennessee may return to its overachieving ways in 2023 now that the team is back to full strength and has upgraded its receiving corps after signing DeAndre Hopkins.
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— NFL upset picks made by Connor Cooper
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