NFL Player Props Week 1: Predictions, Picks for Monday
Sportsbook Review's betting analyst Neil Parker offers his top NFL player props to kick off the 2023 NFL season, based on the NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites.
The Kansas City Chiefs suffered a loss to the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football to kick off the season. Neil Parker went 1-for-2 with his prop picks to start the week. While KC running back Isiah Pacheco fell short of his total rushing yards, wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling easily exceeded his receiving total.
We're now looking at Monday's game, featuring two running backs who are being undervalued at one of our best sports betting apps.
For more analysis of Monday night's Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets game, we have you covered. Check out our Bills vs. Jets predictions for a spicy moneyline bet, our Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers player props to see which QB we like in this matchup, and our look at the Jets' No. 1 receiver with our Garrett Wilson player props.
Here are our best NFL player props for Monday of Week 1 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 1
- Breece Hall + James Cook Over 69.5 rushing yards (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Davante Adams Over 5.5 receptions (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- D’Andre Swift Over 12.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Desmond Ridder Over 180.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Isiah Pacheco Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
NFL player props for Monday Week 1
Breece Hall + James Cook Over 69.5 rushing yards (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This prop immediately caught my eye from our Bills vs. Jets player props article. Not only is it incredibly entertaining, but I see oodles of value in it, too.
In fact, here are my prices and probabilities that one of Hall or Cook clears the 69.5 total on their own.
| Player | Rushing yards projection | Over 69.9 rushing yards odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook | 49.1 | +541 | 15.6% |
| Hall | 40.8 | +1182 | 7.8% |
Of course, the true draw here is we’ve got both rushers on the ticket, and I’d price their combined projections (89.9 rushing yards) at -261 to go over the 69.5 total. It checks out at a positive expected value of 41% compared to the -105 odds at DraftKings.
This was an awesome find from our Rodrigo Villagomez.
Davante Adams Over 5.5 receptions (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Caesars is hanging a decreased total, as the rest of our best NFL prop betting sites all have the number at 6.5. It’s especially appealing because Adams had his way with the Denver Broncos in 2022 to the tune of 16 receptions and 242 yards across two games, as cornerback Patrick Surtain II was no match for the veteran wideout.
I have Adams projected for 6.1 receptions and would price this prop at -150. As a result, we’re landing a positive expected value of 12% over the Caesars odds.
Las Vegas quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be looking Adams' way early and often Sunday afternoon.
Terms and conditions apply.
D’Andre Swift Over 12.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m encouraged about this Over because FanDuel has the number at 14.5, and I have Swift projected for 20.4 receiving yards.
The savvy Philadelphia Eagles brass didn’t ship out two 2023 draft picks for Swift to be strolling along the sidelines, so even with a projected running-back-by-committee ground game in Philly, I’m not worried about his role in the offense.
Swift averaged 27.8 receiving yards per game in 2022, and he sports a 30.0 mark for his career. I have this Over priced at -157, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 12% on the Caesars number.
Terms and conditions apply.
Desmond Ridder Over 180.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
There are plenty of good vibes tied to the Atlanta Falcons heading into the 2023 season, and second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder sports the lowest passing yards total available through FanDuel as of Thursday morning.
Sure, the Falcons have a dangerous ground game, but Ridder comfortably topped this total in two of his final three starts last year, and I have him projected for 203.1 passing yards against the Carolina Panthers.
I’d price this Over at -163, so we’re gaining a positive expected value of 15% on the FanDuel number. Additionally, I value that both DraftKings and BetMGM have this total set at 198.5.
Check out our Falcons-Panthers prediction, and our NFL Week 1 predictions.
Isiah Pacheco Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
I consider this an accurate total, and my numbers are showing an edge. Additionally, Caesars has this total at 54.5 with -115 juice on the Over, so there's a bit of a cushion in that regard, too.
Pacheco returned to preseason action following offseason shoulder surgery and is the clear-cut best rusher for Kansas City. I have the second-year back projected for 57.2 rushing yards against the Lions, so I’d price this Over at -144 to present a positive expected value of 13% compared to the DraftKings odds.
I'm worried about backfield mates Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire getting carries too, which is why I’m only grading this as a two-star recommendation.
+ No Sweat SGP Every Day of NBA Playoffs 🏀
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
We’re landing a decent advantage in this total through Caesars. FanDuel is hanging 42.5 and both DraftKings and BetMGM are at 40.5. That gap also gives me more confidence in my projection of Valdes-Scantling hauling in 42.1 receiving yards, and it reinforces my opinion that Caesars is off the mark here, too.
The second-year Chief garnered starting reps throughout training camp and the preseason, and I’m anticipating improved chemistry with Mahomes in 2023. Additionally, fellow wideout Kadarius Toney (knee) is iffy, and with both Toney and Kelce projecting to be at less than 100% for Thursday, I expect a few more targets heading Valdes-Scantling’s way. And, that's if Toney and Kelce play at all.
I would price this Over at -157 based on my projections, so we’re gaining a positive expected value of 14% on the Caesars number.
Terms and conditions apply.
Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is here!
Kentucky sports betting launched on Sept. 28 - so sign up with the best Kentucky sportsbook promos now! And check out our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps!
21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
