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Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers Player Props, Predictions Week 1: Bills, Jets QBs Square off on MNF

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 11, 2023 5:11 PM EDT • 3 min 18 sec read.

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass against the Chicago Bears during the first half of a preseason game at Soldier Field, and we offer new U.S. bettors our exclusive bet365 bonus code for NFL Week 5.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass against the Chicago Bears during the first half of a preseason game at Soldier Field. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

Our best Josh Allen-Aaron Rodgers player props for the Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets matchup on Monday Night Football are based on the top NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

Aaron Rodgers makes his New York Jets debut against the cream of the crop in the AFC from last season. Will he be able to outduel Josh Allen on Monday Night Football and lead the Jets to an upset victory over the Buffalo Bills?

Here are our best Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers player prop picks to complement our Bills vs. Jets prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers NFL player props for Week 1

Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers player props

Josh Allen -0.5 interceptions (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line legitimately feels like a typo. Only that is keeping it from being a five-star play.

Rodgers threw 12 interceptions in 2022, the second-most in a single season during his career. It ended a streak of 11 consecutive campaigns with single-digit interception totals.

Meanwhile, Allen threw 14 interceptions in 2022 and 15 in 2021. He's chucked only three picks over his last four games against the Jets. The Jets’ defense is confident playing against him, and they boast one of the best secondaries in the NFL. So, why is the price +125 for this?

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We have no idea. If neither quarterback throws an interception, then this obviously won’t hit. But the odds of Allen throwing an interception are significantly higher than Rodgers doing the same. At this price, this bet is simply too good to pass up.

Shane Jackson's trending player prop pick for Monday has a different angle of attack on Josh Allen's odds.

Aaron Rodgers to have more passing yards (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Another great price for something that absolutely could happen. The Jets fielded the third-best pass defense in the league in 2022. They allowed just 189.4 yards per game through the air, and Allen’s average between his two games against them was just 175.5 yards.

The Bills’ secondary was solid last season too, but they allowed nearly 30 more yards per game through the air than the Jets. This game truly is a tossup, so it’s hard to know who's going to be leading or playing from behind. But neither team is going to take its foot off the gas no matter how large any lead gets because of who is playing quarterback on the other side.

Our Garrett Wilson player props look into Rodgers' top new target.

Rodgers threw for just 3,695 yards in 2022, but the troubles with the Packers’ offense went much deeper than their quarterback. With all his new weapons, Rodgers could end up significantly outgaining Allen on Monday night.

Check out our Bills vs. Jets player props and our Bills vs. Jets SGP picks for some more action on Monday Night Football.

Josh Allen + Aaron Rodgers Under 45.5 completions (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Perhaps we’re overplaying the importance of history when it comes to Monday night’s game, but we’d play this completion total as low as 42.5. This isn’t a five-star play because both Rodgers and Allen have been known to produce incredible games, but this is the closest thing to a lock you’re going to get in this contest.

Allen completed just 18 and 16 passes against the Jets in his two games during 2022. Even if he goes to 21, that would still require Rodgers to complete 25 passes for this Over to hit. Rodgers completed just 19 passes during his only game against the Bills in 2022.

It seems oddsmakers are banking on bettors basing their wagers on name alone without looking at stats. Because there's nothing in recent history to suggest this total will finish anywhere near 46.

Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers player prop picks made 09/10/2023 at 10:26 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.