NFL Best Bets Week 1: Can Waller Thrive Against Cowboys?
After an exciting Thursday Night Football matchup that kicked off the 2023 NFL season, we turn our focus to the remaining 15-game NFL slate and the diverse range of betting markets available, offering our NFL best bets for Week 1 based on the most favorable NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Out of the 15 games scheduled for Sunday and Monday, eight feature matchups between divisional rivals, but only three involve opponents from last year's playoffs. Additionally, Week 1 places a spotlight on the debuts of rookie quarterbacks, as Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson make their first career starts. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers embarks on a new chapter in his NFL career, switching to a different team after 19 seasons, while still wearing a shade of green.
Here are our NFL best bets (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 1
- Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown scorer vs. Colts (+162 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Texans (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Darren Waller Over 4.5 receptions vs. Cowboys (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Steelers ML vs. 49ers (+115 via BetMGM, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Check out our NFL Week 1 predictions, NFL Week 1 survivor picks, and NFL player props for Week 1.
Week 1 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-6)
- Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints (-3)
- Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders (-7)
- Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4) vs. New England Patriots
- Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (-1)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. New York Giants
- Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. New York Jets
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NFL predictions for Week 1
Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown scorer vs. Colts (+162 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence guided the team to a 9-8 record in 2022—the franchise's first winning season in five years—primarily because of how well he meshed with his receivers. Christian Kirk (1,108 yards), Zay Jones (823 yards), and Evan Engram (766 yards) all produced career highs in receiving yards. And now the Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley, who has recorded 248 receptions, 3,342 yards, and 28 touchdowns across 49 career games.
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Ridley ranked sixth in receiving touchdowns from 2018 to 2020, while Lawrence was red-hot starting in Week 9 in 2022, ranking second in the NFL in completion percentage (70%) and TD-INT ratio (15-2).
This is a four-star play because Lawrence seemed to enjoy an instant connection with Ridley during the preseason, completing all five of his pass attempts to him for 71 yards and 14.2 yards per attempt.
The +162 odds at bet365 are excellent value since Ridley is as low as +125 at DraftKings to score a touchdown.
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Texans (+130 via bet365)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lamar Jackson has never been given much to work with during his time as the Baltimore Ravens' quarterback. Baltimore's wide receivers corps ranks last in the NFL in receptions (9.4), receiving yards (112.9), and first downs (5.3) per game since 2018. It's not been for a lack of trying to upgrade at receiver, as the team drafted eight during that span, tied for the most in the NFL.
Ravens wide receivers produced the second-fewest catches (124), third-fewest touchdowns (seven), and fewest targets (200) in 2022. However, drafting Zay Flowers out of Boston College and acquiring Odell Beckham Jr. will help Jackson immediately.
Baltimore has averaged the second-most points per game with Jackson as its starting quarterback, even though he's attempted the lowest percentage of passes to wide receivers since 2018 among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 starts (48.2%). Jackson ranked ninth after recording a 59.2 total QBR before his injury in 2022, and we expect him to put on a passing show with the best supporting cast that's ever surrounded him.
BetMGM has the next-best odds at +125, with Jackson’s Over 1.5 passing touchdowns as low as +104 at Caesars.
Check out our NFL upset picks for Week 1.
Darren Waller Over 4.5 receptions vs. Cowboys (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off a season when he ranked sixth with a career-high 60.8 total QBR and a 15:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones also posted career-highs in completion percentage (67.2%) and passing yards (3,205).
The signal-caller was fifth in total QBR (88) and completion percentage 78% while targeting tight ends in 2022, and fourth in first-down percentage (46%). He looked to be enjoying a good rapport with Darren Waller during the preseason, as the tight end hauled in three catches for 30 yards in his one game of action, with four of Jones' first six pass attempts targeting him.
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This is a four-star play because in 2022 the Cowboys' defense produced the highest pressure rate in a season since 2009 (39.2%), so expect several short and quick throws to Waller to negate Dallas' pass rush.
Caesars is the only other shop with this prop available, as it charges a slightly higher price of -109 for Waller to notch five-plus receptions.
Check out our 2024 Super Bowl odds.
Steelers ML vs. 49ers (+115 via BetMGM, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The point spread for this matchup may look fishy to some (San Francisco 49ers -2.5), as Niners quarterback Brock Purdy went 5-0 in the regular season and 7-1 in eight total starts, including the playoffs. But Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers played incredibly well down the stretch in 2022, and we expect that momentum to carry over.
Pickett went 1-3 as a starter during Weeks 4 to 9 with a 36 total QBR and a 2-8 TD-INT ratio, all while averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. However, Pickett went 6-2 between Weeks 10 to 18 with a 60 total QBR (eighth), and a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, all while averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.
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The Steelers went 9-8 in 2022 and won seven of their final nine contests to extend their streak of finishing .500 or better to 19 consecutive seasons. This is a three-star play because San Francisco went 37-17 since 2019 in games with Jimmy Garoppolo as its starting quarterback and 11-10 without him, and it's anyone's guess how Purdy will look in his first action after elbow surgery impacted his offseason training.
BetMGM and Caesars offer the best number for Steelers backers, with DraftKings featuring the least value at +105 odds.
NFL best bets made 9/8/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
NFL betting odds pages
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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