Jaguars vs. Colts Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 1: Let the Anthony Richardson Era Begin
Our favorite Jaguars vs. Colts prediction based on the best NFL odds takes a look at rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson ahead of his NFL debut.
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2023 NFL season as favorites to win the weak AFC South, but the Indianapolis Colts were in the same position this time last year. While Week 1 might be our only glimpse, Sunday's matchup involving Indianapolis could reveal a lot about the competitiveness of this division race.
Both teams feature a promising young quarterback, though Trevor Lawrence is a bit more established. Lawrence delivered a division crown and playoff win in his second season. Expectations are even higher for the former No. 1 overall pick, with receiver Calvin Ridley now in the mix.
As for the Colts, this weekend marks the official beginning of the Anthony Richardson era. The former Florida quarterback, selected fourth overall, is set to start immediately. Head coach Shane Steichen, who served as the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles last year, is expected to create a game plan that enables Richardson to have an immediate impact.
Here is our best Jaguars vs. Colts prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jaguars vs. Colts prediction
Colts +5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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I'm not quite ready to just anoint the Jaguars after they won a weak AFC South last year, especially since they needed to win the final five regular-season games to do so. Lawrence is great, and last year's comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the postseason was impressive, but the market might be inflating the Jags a bit too much at this point.
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On the other side, I think the market is underrating the Colts. It's easy to forget that Indianapolis was everyone's default answer to win the AFC South just 12 months ago when Matt Ryan was the starting quarterback. Ryan committed 28 turnovers in 12 games, but that's not the only unlucky trait the Colts had last year.
According to this NFL preview guide from ClevAnalytics, the Colts went 4-6 in one-score games and 1-4 in games when they held a 70% or more win probability in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis was on the wrong side of variance last year, and it's leading to a lower outlook for this team.
Bettors are also probably scared off of the Colts due to the fact they have a rookie quarterback. But we know that mobile quarterbacks tend to find their footing much faster in the NFL, and I have no doubt that Steichen will develop a scheme that plays to the QB's otherworldly traits.
Based on my power ratings, I think we are getting some value on the home divisional underdog in Week 1. The Colts recorded a 34-27 home victory over the Jaguars in Week 6 last year, and haven't lost to their division rival at Lucas Oil Stadium since 2017.
We are taking the points in a game that could be much more competitive than most are expecting.
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Jaguars vs. Colts best odds
DraftKings (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts +5 | Colts +4.5 | Colts +5 | Colts +5 | Colts +5 |
| -110 | -106 | -110 | -115 | -110 |
With a few different shops hanging a 5-point spread, it's merely a matter of preference on where you want to place this bet. We'd recommend playing the Colts at +4.5 or better with standard -110 odds but will take the full 5-point line via DraftKings.
In addition, there should be plenty of prop angles worth attacking given the market's current outlook of each team. Like many, we are monitoring the rushing yards prop for Richardson in his debut. It started as low as 42.5 and touched as high as 49.5 at our best sports betting sites.
Jaguars vs. Colts odds
Jaguars vs. Colts odds analysis
While betting markets for Week 1 have been out for quite some time, this line has only recently started to move. The Jaguars opened as 4-point favorites, but the line has started to drift to -5 across the board with kickoff on the horizon.
The total began as low as 43.5 before climbing up to to a consensus price of 46.5.
Jaguars vs. Colts game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Dome
Jaguars-Colts prediction made Thursday, Sept. 7 at 5:45 p.m. ET
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