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NFL Best Bets Week 10: Bills’ Slow Starts Should Continue on Monday Night Football

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: November 12, 2023 9:55 AM EST • 4 min 43 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Our NFL best bets for Week 10 begin include a look at the injury-riddled Cincinnati Bengals. We search out the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps when making our NFL picks.

The start of the second half of the NFL season provides plenty of opportunities for bettors, with a particular focus on the early matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots in Germany.

Week 10 in the NFL presents several noteworthy matchups, with key games such as the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars, a pivotal AFC North showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns, and the Buffalo Bills aiming to bounce back as they face the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. These matchups add anticipation to the week, featuring teams vying for crucial victories and playoff implications.

These matchups carry significant implications for the teams involved, with the 49ers and Jaguars meeting in a cross-conference clash, the Ravens and Browns competing in a key divisional matchup, and the Bills aiming to overcome recent challenges against the Broncos on the prime-time stage. Football enthusiasts are anticipating a weekend filled with high-stakes and compelling contests across the league.

To accompany our Week 10 NFL predictions, Week 10 player props, and Week 10 parlay predictions, here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 10 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 10

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Week 10 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

NFL predictions for Week 10

Indianapolis Colts -2 vs. New England Patriots (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Indianapolis Colts don’t come to mind when ranking the top offenses in the NFL, but their attack might be the most consistent. Indy has yet to be held below 20 points this season (even if it needed two defensive TDs to extend that streak last week against the Carolina Panthers), giving the Colts a chance to win any game in which they can hold down the opposition.

That shouldn’t be a problem against the 2-7 New England Patriots. Mac Jones and Co. have managed 17 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games, the one exception coming against a banged-up Buffalo Bills defense three weeks ago. The Pats have now covered just two of their last 13 games going back to last season, and with rumors starting to swirl that Bill Belichick’s tenure could be soon coming to an end, focus and motivation could also be lacking for this trip to Germany.

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Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Under 47 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Joe Burrow’s recovery from a calf injury is the biggest reason the Cincinnati Bengals have won four straight after a 1-3 start, but don’t sleep on the play of Cincy’s defense. Over the past three weeks, the Bengals have held the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks to an average of just 16 points per game.

Meanwhile, Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud was the talk of the league last week after throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns in a wild 39-37 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Prior to that, however, Stroud averaged 175 passing yards in back-to-back games against the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints. Houston has also struggled to generate offense consistently on the road, managing 19 points or fewer in three of four outings this year.

Considering the highest total for a Texans game so far this season is 43.5, this number is an overreaction to what we saw from Stroud last week. Also, the Bengals are expected to be without Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase could be limited by a back injury.

Detroit Lions -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It may look like all is right again with the Los Angeles Chargers after back-to-back wins by a combined 38 points, but we’re not convinced. Los Angeles had just 14 first downs and less than 200 total yards in Monday night’s 27-6 win over the New York Jets, a game in which the Chargers returned a punt 87 yards for a touchdown and recovered three New York fumbles.

Los Angeles now returns home on a short week to host the rested Detroit Lions, who won five of six games before enjoying a bye last week. The Lions’ offense is better on fast-turf surfaces like SoFi Stadium, and Jared Goff could have a field day against the Chargers’ last-ranked pass defense. Defensively, Detroit ranks third against the run and can shut down Austin Ekeler, who was LA’s biggest producer last week against New York.

Denver Broncos first-quarter spread +1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Slow starts have plagued the Buffalo Bills over the last five games, a stretch in which Buffalo has gone 2-3 straight up and 0-5 against the spread. Buffalo has been outscored 38-10 in the first quarter over those five games, and the Bills have trailed after the opening 15 minutes in four of those contests.

While Buffalo has allowed opponents to score on nearly 41% of first-quarter drives this season, Denver has been at its best in the opening frame, putting up points on 47.1% of its first-quarter possessions — the second-highest rate in the NFL. Since being blown out 70-20 by the Miami Dolphins in September, the Broncos have won the first quarter in four of five games.

With so much pressure on Josh Allen and the Bills to turn things around in a primetime home game, don’t be surprised if Buffalo is tight once again early and the Broncos take advantage.

NFL best bets made 11/10/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.