Week 4 featured the Chicago Bears dropping to 0-4 on the season with a historic loss ahead of their Week 5 date with the Washington Commanders. We're making our best Bears-Commanders prediction for Thursday Night Football based on the best TNF odds.
The Chicago Bears, currently holding a winless 0-4 record, are experiencing their first such start since 2000. Their ongoing losing skid has extended to 14 consecutive games, dating back to the previous season. In their most recent loss to the Denver Broncos, the Bears endured a particularly devastating defeat, matching the franchise's largest blown lead when they held a 21-point advantage in the third quarter.
In contrast, the Washington Commanders faced a defeat at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles, joining the ranks of every other team that has encountered Philadelphia this season. Throughout a two-game losing skid, the Commanders have been allowing an average of 35.5 points per game.
Start your NFL predictions for Week 5 on the right foot with our best Bears vs. Commanders prediction for Thursday Night Football, and don't miss our Bears vs. Commanders player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bears vs. Commanders prediction: Thursday Night Football
Bears +6.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Bears have allowed 25-plus points in 14 consecutive games, the longest such streak in NFL history. Meanwhile, the Commanders played one of the best teams in the NFC to a stalemate on the road for 60 minutes and had a chance to win in overtime after possessing the ball first.
Now Washington is at home against one of two winless teams through four games and is less than a touchdown favorite? Needless to say, we are intrigued by the oddsmakers’ tempting line.
While Chicago has had a historically poor stretch of defensive football, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is not exactly a gunslinger (however, our Brenden Schaeffer is expecting a big game from Howell with his Bears vs. Commanders parlay picks). He has been sacked 14 times during the team’s two-game losing streak and ranks 28th in passer rating. And it is not like Washington’s defense has been stout lately, as it has allowed 33 or more points in three straight games for the second time in the Super Bowl era.
Justin Fields can build off last week’s performance when he became the first in franchise history with four-plus touchdown passes in a single game since Mitchell Trubusky did it in 2018. Our Phil Wood is expecting him to do just that with his Justin Fields NFL player props for TNF.
This is a contrarian four-star play, as Commanders head coach Ron Rivera said he did not go for a potential game-winning two-point conversion at the end of regulation last week, citing that his team was gassed. That does not bode well coming into a short week, and we are using the fact that Chicago has not covered the spread in seven consecutive games (0-6-1) to our advantage.
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Bears vs. Commanders best odds
All major sportsbooks are in unison with a 6.5-point spread, but DraftKings is our go-to shop based on being the only one charging less than standard -110 juice to back the underdogs.
Based on the line movement and public perception that Washington is the rightful favorite in this game, it may behoove Bears backers to see if the line reaches the key number of seven on its own.
If it doesn’t move that far, we would not put anyone off backing Chicago’s +7.5-point alternate spread, and we would be comfortable paying up to -140 for the inflated number.
Bears vs. Commanders odds for Thursday Night Football
Bears vs. Commanders odds analysis
This line has skyrocketed at several shops from an opening number of Washington -4.5. It has been a steady increase across the board, as there has not yet been any buyback on the Bears at any number along the way up to 6.5. However, sharps must be backing the Commanders at most shops, as the early point spread wagers are split dead-even.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering a total of 45 points, as all other shops are in unison with an O/U of 44.5. BetMGM opened the highest of any sportsbook as the only one at 45.5, but Under backers quickly weighed in and drove the line down to 44 before rebounding to 44.5. Despite the Under cashing in each of Washington’s last seven home games, 65 percent of the early wagers have backed the Over.
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Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 5 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 63 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph S
Bears-Commanders prediction made 10/2/23 at 6:59 a.m. ET
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