NFL Player Props Week 5: Predictions, Picks for Sunday
Jon Metler and Neil Parker, betting analysts at Sportsbook Review, have selected their premier NFL player prop picks for Week 5. Utilizing NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites, they aim to build on their remarkable 8-1 record from the previous two weeks and continue their winning streak.
The NFL player props article has been on fire for the past two weeks. We've won eight out of our last nine bets, with the lone loss occurring on the Over for Jaylen Waddle's receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills. Instead, it was the Stefon Diggs show as he outperformed all receivers from both teams in the AFC East rivalry game.
That's enough about the player who cost us a unit in Week 4; let's give a shoutout to the players who earned us a green checkmark. We hit on our player props for Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker, and Romeo Doubs, earning us +1.95 units for the week
On Monday Night Football, Walker surpassed his rushing yards total for the Seattle Seahawks, a bet we had been focusing on.
We started this week with another Over bet on a running back's rushing yards total for Thursday Night Football, though it didn't land. Let's look for better results this weekend.
To complement our NFL predictions for Week 5 and NFL best bets, here are our best NFL player props for Week 5 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 5
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 283.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- George Pickens Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Burrow Over 251.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Brian Robinson Jr. Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
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NFL player props for Week 5: Sunday
Tua Tagovailoa Under 283.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins will be hosting the New York Giants on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium, with the Dolphins trading as 12-point favorites. Should Miami win this game? Yes. Should it be able to move the ball and score points with relative ease? Also, yes. However, I don't think you can simply bet the Over on Tagovailoa's passing yards because you assume offense will come easily for the Dolphins on Sunday, mainly because of this prop total being set at 283.5.
The Giants' offense isn't one that will force the Dolphins to keep scoring, and even if it does, who is to say it will be through the air? The Dolphins have showcased one of the better one-two punches on the ground this season with De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Achane is averaging 11.4 yards per attempt, and Mostert is averaging 5.2 yards per rushing attempt.
With the Dolphins expected to operate from a positive game script, we might see a heavy dose of the run game, ultimately affecting Tagovailoa's passing yards. Not to mention that Giants head coach Brian Daboll was Tagovailoa's quarterback coach and offensive coordinator at Alabama for one season, so I'm sure he has some tricks up his sleeve on how to disrupt Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa is projected to throw for 281.7 passing yards against the Giants, which means we can price the Under on 283.5 passing yards at -120, but we can get it at -110 via bet365. Based on our projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 4%.
The best price for this prop can be found at bet365; almost all of our best NFL betting sites have the total set at 283.5, but it's the -110 juice on the Under compared to the -115 we see elsewhere that prompts us to place this bet at bet365.
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Pick made by Jon Metler
George Pickens Over 47.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense has looked terrible, and everyone wants offensive coordinator Matt Canada fired, but 47.5 receiving yards for Pickens? This total on Pickens was closing at 60.5 just one week ago, and the Steelers will be without Diontae Johnson once again as he was placed on injured reserve and can't return to the lineup until after Week 5.
If I'm Canada and trying to save my job, I would throw the ball to my best weapon in a rivalry game against the Baltimore Ravens. There were also questions about QB Kenny Pickett's health, but he was a full participant at practice this week.
In our Beat the Bullseye contest at Sportsbook Review, I used Ravens -3.5 as one of my picks. I think the Ravens should be more like 5.5-point favorites over the Steelers. If this is my stance on how I think the overall game will play out, then the Steelers will be playing catch-up and will have to throw the ball more.
Pickens is projected to have 58.3 receiving yards against the Ravens in Week 5, which means we can price the Over on 47.5 receiving yards at -128, and this bet shows a positive expected value of 7% at bet365.
The best price for Pickens is available at bet365, but keep an eye on FanDuel. It hasn't posted receiving totals yet for this game, and it loves to throw up a number that is a little different from the rest of the market.
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Pick made by Jon Metler
Joe Burrow Over 251.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Even with the Arizona Cardinals showing up and playing competitive football, their pass defense has been susceptible while posting the third-lowest DVOA and third-lowest grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
As a result, I’m looking at this game as a coming-out party for the Cincinnati Bengals' offense, and specifically Joe Burrow.
I'm projecting the Cincy QB to throw for 264.4 passing yards and would price this Over at -141. My numbers present a positive expected value of 12% compared to the -110 bet365 odds.
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Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
NFL player props for Week 5: Thursday
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐ ✖️
After witnessing the Chicago Bears blow a 28-7 lead to the Denver Broncos and their head coach's decision not to kick the field goal for the lead, one might begin to wonder about the effort we can expect from them on Thursday Night Football, especially given their short week and upcoming trip to Washington. But this is the NFL, where everyone is fighting for a job, not to mention that it's impossible to handicap human emotion.
What we do know about the Commanders is that they should be operating from a positive game script here, as they are 6-point favorites against the Bears. In the two games that the Commanders have won, Robinson has averaged 18.5 rushing attempts per game, and in the two that they lost, he has only averaged 12 rushing attempts per game. This has been accounted for, as Robinson's rushing yards total usually trades in the mid-50s, but has it been increased enough? The projections don't seem to think so.
Robinson is projected to rush for 72.8 yards against the Bears, which means we can price the Over 63.5 rushing yards at -130. Yet, it is available at BetMGM at -110. This means this bet is showing a positive expected value of 8%.
Make sure you take advantage of this price at BetMGM; DraftKings has the same total of 63.5, but the juice increased to -120, which seems insignificant, but it actually slashes your expected value in half. You would be better off going after the total of 64.5 rushing yards at bet365 because the Over is trading at -110 there, and based on our projection, that total would have an expected value of 5%.
For more on this matchup, turn to our Bears-Commanders prediction, Bears-Commanders player props, and Justin Fields props.
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
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