Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Dart has four completions of 20-plus yards, but those all came last weekend against a banged-up and struggling Eagles defense. His high across his first two starts was a pair of 18-yard completions.

He has a much worse matchup against an elite Denver unit and a pass rush that won't give him the time to unleash a deep ball.

As dominant as this Broncos defense has been, the unit only has one interception on the year and ranks 26th in total takeaways.

Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart has also played mostly clean football.

Denver is allowing the lowest net yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks league-wide (4.5), meaning New York is unlikely to get chunk plays through the passing game.

The Giants will have more opportunities for Dart to hit completions, rather than pick up yardage in one big swing.

The Denver Broncos couldn't get out of their own way against the New York Jets (yes, the Jets) last week, and now they face a Giants team - with the dynamic rookie duo of Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart - just rounding into form.

The Giants are 2-1 against the spread in the Dart era, look for them to go 3-1 on Sunday.

Yeah, he’s facing the best red-zone defense in football (28% red-zone conversions against rank No. 1), but that won’t stop Skattebo given his volume. Even though he wasn't heavily featured early in the season, Skattebo is fifth in the NFL in red-zone rushes with 22, scoring four touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.

Veteran running back J.K. Dobbins had TDs in each of his first three games with Denver, but he's since only scored once. Still, I'm betting on Dobbins to find the end zone against a Giants defense that has allowed seven rushing touchdowns, including four to No. 1 running backs.

Also worth noting: Dobbins, who didn't score against the Jets in London last week, has gone 15 straight games without getting shutout in back-to-back contests.

Broncos No. 1 wideout Courtland Sutton had a rough day in London last week, catching just one pass in a 13-11 win over the Jets. Despite that, Sutton still has recorded at least five receptions in eight of his last 10 regular season and playoff games and 14 of his last 17 (including six of seven at home).

Never once during this 17-game stretch has Sutton finished with fewer than five catches in back-to-back contests. Meanwhile, the Giants' defense has allowed 12 different opponents to record five-plus catches, including at least one in every game.

Not only has Jaxson Dart beaten his rushing yards prop in each of his three starts with the Giants, he's done so with ease. The rookie had 54 yards against the Chargers, 55 at New Orleans and 58 against Philadelphia.

Now, though, he has to face the Broncos' dominant defense, one that has held all six opposing QBs below their projected rushing total. The best a QB has done against Denver on the ground: the Jets' Justin Fields, who had 31 yards last week (11.5  below his projection). Next best: Justin Herbert with 6 yards.

Everyone stay quiet; the sportsbooks haven't caught on to just how great Skattebo is for the Giants. First of all, the workload Skattebo is receiving is one of a true bellcow, with 25, 15, and 19 carries over the last three weeks. And second, regardless of the game script, it seems like the Giants are hellbent on sticking to the run game.

Things didn't work out well in Jaxson Dart's first road game, where he lost to a subpar New Orleans team. The Denver Broncos, who have an immeasurably better defense, are superb in the Mile High City. 

I'm compelled by the brand of football we've seen from the Giants of late, but this will be Jaxson Dart's toughest test yet against a ferocious Broncos defense. I'm inclined to wait until later in the week to see if Denver -6.5 becomes available.

Tyler Warren’s 370 receiving yards lead all tight ends this season. And the start to his rookie season has been historic, as he is the only tight end since the AFL/NFL merger with 350 yards and at least three receiving touchdowns in his first three games.

Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to wide receivers, while McConkey has seen seven or more targets in each of the last two weeks.

Los Angeles has held four of its last five opposing starting quarterbacks to 205 or fewer passing yards, with three failing to throw for 180 yards. And the Chargers have allowed the most rushing touchdowns outside the tackles while Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has scored the most touchdowns in that split, so Indianapolis should be attacking more on the ground this week.

The Chargers escaped Miami with a victory but still have a rash of injuries to contend with. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts show no signs of slowing down. 

I truly do respect and appreciate the job that Shane Steichen has done this year in Indianapolis. I just think the Chargers are a better football team, which makes this short line feel like a rare value for the home favorites.

Pickens has found the end zone in a remarkable five straight games and has scored in 83.3% of his games as a Cowboy.

Six of the nine receiving touchdowns permitted by Washington’s defense have gone to wide receivers.

The Commanders have allowed 142.7 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. Opposing lead rushers have reached 63 or more yards against Washington’s defense in four of the past five games.

Javonte Williams is coming off a quiet outing against Carolina, but he has cleared this rushing line in four of six games.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has evolved into the lead rusher for the Commanders, garnering 14+ rushing attempts in consecutive weeks leading into this matchup with the Cowboys' 29th-ranked run defense.

Dallas is allowing 142.2 yards per game on the ground and has permitted opposing lead rushers to cruise for 86 or more rushing yards in three straight weeks.

He's found a home in Dallas with quarterback Dak Prescott, who will still find him even though Lamb is expected to play in Week 7. This game is projected to be high scoring, with sportsbooks settling on 54.5 as the total. Pickens is third in the NFL with nine red-zone targets, and I expect him to hit for six come Sunday against a soft Washington Commanders secondary.

Washington can be had through the air, as their pass defense ranks 23rd in football, allowing 235 yards per game. With the books projecting this one as a high-scoring game with a total in the 50s, rest assured Mr. Prescott will be dropping back close to 40 times - giving us enough volume to soar over this number.

The Cowboys are one of two teams to enter Week 7 ranked in the bottom five in both pass and rush yards per game allowed. Dallas is also the league’s worst scoring defense (30.7 points per game), has allowed the most first downs (145), and the most points allowed in the fourth quarter (64). 

The Washington Commanders would have sealed the deal against the Chicago Bears last week had it not been for a late, costly Jayden Daniels fumble. I'm backing Daniels to enjoy a bounce-back game. 

You won't win kudos from your friends for taking the points with Dallas, but it's the right side given how efficient the Cowboys' offense has been - even if the defense will need to bow up against Washington's run game.

Golden hasn't caught a touchdown yet, but after just 16 yards in his first two games, he's recorded at least 52 yards in three consecutive. Jordan Love has already thrown nine touchdowns this season, including one in every game.

McBride has 15 more catches than any other Cardinal, and on Sunday, he faces the only defense in the NFL allowing more than seven receptions per game to tight ends.

Harrison has managed at least 66 yards in two of his last three games, and last week, he had two catches for 32 yards before suffering a concussion in the second quarter. The Packers have been burned by number-one receivers, allowing 94 yards to Ja'Marr Chase and 134 to George Pickens.

The Arizona Cardinals have allowed two touchdowns to the tight end position this year, and Tucker Kraft has been one of Jordan Love's go-to receivers all season long. 

Earning 22 targets this season, Kraft is among the elite TE1s in the NFL, and will be able to expose the 27th-ranked pass defense in Arizona. The Cardinals also allow at least two red-zone scores per game (20th-ranked red-zone defense), giving me extra confidence in this play.

Green Bay often struggles to cover big spreads as a betting favorite, which has me backing the home underdogs to keep things close. 

The Cardinals feel like this year's quintessential paper tigers, and I expect them to fold in a legitimate test against a loaded Packers team that needs a win to stay atop the fierce NFC North.

Atlanta fell flat in its most recent road game, losing 30-0 to the Panthers. The east-to-west travel implications in a night game for Atlanta (on a short week) could work against the Falcons.

Kyle Shanahan’s defense loses Fred Warner for the season, but getting George Kittle back should be an emotional boost.

The Falcons should look to Bijan Robinson to continue his contributions through the air against a 49ers defense that has surrendered the eighth-most receptions to the running back position. Robinson has secured 5+ receptions in three of five games this season. 

How can I not back Bijan Robinson with the way the Falcons' star running back is playing right now?

The NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender leads the league in scrimmage yards and has scored in each of his last two games.

The Atlanta defense funnels production away from tight ends better than any defense in the league, allowing just nine total receptions to the position over five games on the year. 

49ers wide receiver Kendrick Bourne has yet to reach the end zone this season, but he has 20 targets and 15 receptions over the last two weeks.

With Mac Jones starting again for San Francisco in place of the injured Brock Purdy, I like the odds we're getting, given the QB's history and chemistry with Bourne going all the way back to their time with the New England Patriots.

49ers tight end Jake Tonges is far from a household name - one total target in his career before this season - but he's scored in half of San Francisco's games in 2025 (three TDs in six appearances).

Drake London was held out of the end zone in his first three games, but the Falcons' talented receiver has touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.

It's reminiscent of the early part of last season, when London went on a TD heater, with scores in six of eight games (including three in a row from Weeks 5-7). I'm betting he notches the second three-game scoring binge of his career Sunday night against a San Francisco secondary that has gotten burned for 10 TDs in six games.

Kudos to Kendrick Bourne for coming up huge the last two weeks when he racked up a career-best 142 receiving yards against both the Rams and Buccaneers. It's just not happening again — not against an Atlanta pass defense that allows 18 fewer passing yards per contest than any other NFL team.

The last time Bourne tallied as many as 43 receiving yards in three consecutive games? It's never happened in his nine-year, 116-game career.

Simply put, Christian McCaffrey is in a rushing-prop slump. The 49ers' versatile running back rumbled for 69 yards in the season opener but he hasn't hit 60 yards in five games since.

Go back to last season, and CMC has been held under 58 rushing yards in eight of his last 10 starts. This projection is off by at least 7 yards, so play it low.

Since 2023, San Francisco’s 7-14 ATS home record is the second-worst in the league. And for those that don’t believe Atlanta can pull a second straight upset, teams off an outright win as underdogs in primetime that play a night game the following week are 27-20 SU over the last 20 years.

The Falcons are soaring, thanks to Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Michael Penix. Their blitz-heavy defense has been incredibly effective, and I'm not confident in the 49ers, considering how injury-stricken they are. 

I still believe in the Falcons even after an inconsistent start to the season, and this line doesn't fully reflect the scope of 49ers' injuries, which worsened last week with the loss of superstar linebacker Fred Warner.

Atlanta entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest explosive plays (14) and the fewest passing yards per game (108), which is 46 fewer than any other team. Opposing teams also have the seventh-worst EPA per dropback and sixth-worst completion percentage over expected against the Falcons defense.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris has a much better ATS road record (21-18-1) than at home (13-25 ATS). And when his teams play on the road directly after a home game, they are 18-9-1 ATS. That includes a 22-6 outright upset as +145 moneyline underdogs of the Vikings in the Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup this season.

Dan Campbell's team have scored at least 31 points in eight of the last nine games at Ford Field dating back to last season, averaging 40. That staggering total is accompanied by a 32-point-per-game average in the previous 11 games following a defeat. 

Both teams are among the top eight in offensive DVOA, with Detroit fifth and Tampa Bay eighth, while the Lions score the second-most points per game (31.8) and the Buccaneers the sixth most (27.5). 

I'm expecting the Buccaneers' injury situation to finally catch up to them. The Detroit Lions are even more dynamic at Ford Field, and Baker Mayfield won't have Bucky Irving or Emeka Egbuka. Mike Evans might return, but he'll need some time to get back to full game sharpness. 

The Lions' secondary is depleted, but the Buccaneers may be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Bucky Irving on Monday. With the Lions averaging over 30 points per game, I don't see how Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers keep up with so many injuries.

Who is the best team in the NFC? The betting odds say Detroit, but given the Lions' injuries, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa Bay extend its magical run with an outright upset at Ford Field.

On throws of 20-plus air yards, Smith-Njigba has 11 receptions and 402 yards, and the yardage is 100 more than any other player. He has 16 catches for 294 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. And considering Houston has allowed just one passing touchdown to tight ends, that adds more value on a Seattle wide receiver to find the endzone.

Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet has received the bulk of the rushing duties (57%) in the two games that both he and Kenneth Walker III have been healthy. But Charbonnet is more of a short-yardage and goal line back, as evidenced by his 2.6 yards per carry average, and he only has one explosive run of 10-plus yards this season.

Houston is likely to bottle up the prodding Charbonnet this week, as it ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards and explosive run rate allowed to running backs.

Seattle is coming off a game where it sacked Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence seven times, while holding Jacksonville to season-lows in points (12), yards (273), and rushing yards (59). Its elite pass rush is a big reason the secondary ranks in the top four in DVOA on defense, and the top half of the league in passer rating, pass EPA, and yards per attempt allowed.

The Seahawks defense is coming off a game where they sacked Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence seven times, while holding Jacksonville to season lows in points (12), yards (273), and rush yards (59).

Seattle’s defense now ranks in the top two in the league in yards per rush allowed, yards per rush after contact, and rushing touchdowns allowed. In fact, it is on pace to break its franchise record for yards per rush allowed in a season (currently allowing 3.3 yards per carry). 

In a tilt featuring elite defenses, I'm backing Seattle due to its offensive superiority. 

The Texans have the top scoring defense, allowing just 12.2 points per game. Their pass defense, which is allowing just 175.2 yards per game, will cause Sam Darnold's first truly bad game as the Seahawks' starter.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has led the team to back-to-back wins after starting 0-3, and has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that winning streak after throwing more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) over the first three games. He had an NFL-best 94 Total QBR in Weeks 5 and 6, and the Texans should be competitive despite this step up in competition. 

Are we sure the Seahawks aren't one of the best teams in the NFL? Seattle boasts the second-best point differential (+49) with efficient play offensively and a tenacious defense that should spell trouble for C.J. Stroud and the Texans' vulnerable O-line.