We're sure to see some upsets as NFL teams wind through the final weeks of the regular season, and we offer our top three NFL upset picks for Week 14 based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.
Favorites dominated during Week 13, boasting an impressive 11-2 straight-up record. This stronghold of favorites restricted the opportunities for bettors to capitalize on moneyline underdogs, thereby limiting their potential for profit during that period.
However, seven favorites have spreads of three or fewer points in Week 14, creating a potentially favorable scenario for udnerdogs to find success this week.
In addition to our NFL Week 14 predictions and NFL Week 14 player props and best bets, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 14 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 14
- Raiders (+132 via FanDuel) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bills (+120 via DraftKings, bet365) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
- Broncos (+135 via Caesars) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Raiders vs. Vikings (+132 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Minnesota Vikings showcased remarkable resilience in stabilizing their performance despite facing adversity, losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury and playing without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson since early October. Despite these setbacks, they managed to maintain their momentum and navigate through challenges, demonstrating commendable adaptability and determination.
However, the team has lost back-to-back games (albeit by three combined points), and Joshua Dobbs has committed six turnovers in that span. That led to head coach Kevin O’Connell using the bye week to go through all of his quarterback options (Nick Mullens’ name has been mentioned) to determine how to get the most out of the offense, especially with Jefferson recently activated off injured reserve.
On the other side, the Las Vegas Raiders’ back-to-back losses have come against two of the AFC’s division leaders in the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs, so we are still every bit as confident in them as we were after they won their first two games under interim coach Antonio Pierce.
The Raiders have managed five wins despite averaging fewer than 17 points per game and scoring more than 20 points just twice. We expect their defense to carry them once again when facing a Vikings team in an offensive crisis with quarterback uncertainty.
FanDuel is our go-to shop for this wager, as the only best sports betting site offering moneyline odds higher than +130. In addition, the +132 found at FanDuel is a great value compared to BetRivers, which is on the low end at +116.
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Bills vs. Chiefs (+120 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Buffalo Bills are no stranger to Arrowhead Stadium, playing at the Kansas City Chiefs four times since their AFC Championship Game matchup in 2020.
Now Buffalo has a huge rest advantage off a bye week, while the Chiefs played on Sunday Night Football last week. And with the Bills seemingly fighting for their playoff lives, we expect them to build upon all the good that came out of their near-upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12.
Josh Allen is coming off his third career game with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns. In addition, Buffalo’s re-commitment to the running game is refreshing, as it had a season-high 40 rushes and seven rushes of at least 10 yards against the Eagles, while its 173 rush yards were the third-most this season.
Over the first 10 games, the Bills averaged 25.5 points, 370.1 yards per game, and had a 36% designed rush percentage with 46% pre-snap motion. In two games under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills have averaged 33 points and 449 yards per game and had a 43% designed rush percentage with 60% pre-snap motion.
This is a three-star play, as Kansas City has done well to avoid losing streaks, winning each of its last 11 games following a loss. However, we also know that the Bills will not be intimidated on the road, winning two of their last four at Arrowhead and owning a +2 point differential in those games.
Broncos vs. Chargers (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Denver Broncos had a five-game winning streak snapped with last week’s 22-17 road loss against the Houston Texans. Russell Wilson was plagued by turnovers as he endured his seventh career game of three or more interceptions.
However, we also expect the Broncos defense to get back to creating more turnovers this week, as they had zero takeaways against the Texans after combining for 16 takeaways during their five-game winning streak.
Conversely, nothing was inspiring about Los Angeles’s 6-0 road win at the New England Patriots, the first win in Chargers franchise history when scoring six or fewer points.
Denver may be just 2-11 SU in its last 13 games against AFC West opponents, but one of those wins was against Los Angeles last year. From Weeks 1-6, Denver ranked 19th with 34% of its drives ending in points but ranked third from Weeks 7-12, with that number improving to 46%. We expect the Broncos to find their offensive mojo against a forgiving Chargers defense this week.
NFL upset picks made 12/5/2023 at 6:11 a.m. ET.
NFL betting odds pages
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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