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NFL best bets
NFL best bets

With 14 NFL contests on Sunday and Monday and six with point spreads of a field goal or lower, an exciting weekend of NFL action should be ahead, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for Week 14 based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.

The Thursday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers started with an O/U of 30 points, and we now have three other games this weekend with projected totals of 37 points or fewer. The lower totals across the league result from colder weather and the potential for as many as nine backup quarterbacks to start for their respective teams.  

In addition to our NFL Week 14 predictions and NFL Week 14 player props and best bets, here are our NFL player props, best bets, and NFL picks for Week 14 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 14

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Week 14 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Week 14

Matthew Stafford Under 31.5 passing attempts vs. Ravens (-105 via BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford started the season aggressively, consistently attempting over 33 passes per game in the initial five matches. Yet, in the subsequent six games, there's been a clear decline, with four games seeing him throw fewer than 33 passes. This change coincides with the Rams emphasizing their rushing game, notably seen in Kyren Williams' exceptional 545 rushing yards in the last five games. This indicates a deliberate shift towards a more balanced offensive strategy for the team.

When he has a clean pocket this season, Stafford has produced a 74 QBR, completed 67% of his passes, and averaged 8.0 yards per attempt. However, when pressured, Stafford’s QBR drops to 13 (the -61 differential is the second-largest decline in the NFL), ranks 22nd, completes just 36% of his passes, and averages 4.7 yards per attempt. This is significant since the Baltimore Ravens are pressuring quarterbacks on 33% of dropbacks (seventh-highest). In addition, there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore on Sunday with wind gusts of 15-plus mph, so we look for the Rams to lean on the run more than usual.

FanDuel has the Under of 31.5 attempts juiced to -122, so we are getting a great price at BetMGM, DraftKings, or bet365 in comparison.

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!  

Dak Prescott Over 2.5 passing touchdowns vs. Eagles (+170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Dak Prescott still has generous plus-money odds to throw three or more touchdowns despite doing so in five of the previous six games. Prescott ranks first in QBR, first in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passing yards per game. He gets a great matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks last in QBR, 31st in passing touchdowns, and 29th in passing yards per game. 

The Eagles have had a subpar pass rush this season, pressuring quarterbacks on 26% of dropbacks (29th). Meanwhile, Prescott has an NFL-best 81 Total QBR since Week 6 (and is the only quarterback above 69 in that span).

The Dallas offense has had more than just CeeDee Lamb stepping up, especially Brandin Cooks, whose 20 receptions for 332 yards and three touchdowns over the last four games is more than he had through Weeks 1-9 combined.

DraftKings is on the low end with +150 odds for Prescott to throw three or more touchdown passes, so use our bet365 bonus code, SBRBONUS, to get the best value.

NFL game picks for Week 14

Bengals ML vs. Colts (-104 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew is 4-0 SU and ATS as a road favorite, but we are bucking that trend and expect their longest winning streak since 2018 (four games) to end this weekend.

The Colts are 4-1 on the road this season, but all of those games were either played early in the season or in warmer climates. We expect the elements in Cincinnati (70% chance of rain, wind gusts of 11-plus mph) to favor the Bengals against a dome team, and they are facing a Colts defense that ranks in the bottom three in rushing success rate and who has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns this season.

Meanwhile, Bengals quarterback Jake Browning became the first in franchise history with 350 passing yards and an 85% completion percentage in a game in their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13. After the first quarter, Browning averaged 5.1 air yards, was 7-for-7 on throws 10-plus air yards, and averaged 10.7 yards per attempt. Browning has been off target on one of 63 passes in the last two games, and he should be used to playing in the rain, having played his college ball at the University of Washington.

Use our BetRivers bonus code, SBRBONUS, to get the best value on this play.

Panthers +5.5 vs. Saints (-115 via FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We backed the Carolina Panthers as 5.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week and are doing so in another road matchup against a division rival this week.

The New Orleans Saints are 0-5 ATS at home this season for the first time since 1980 and have covered just five of 20 home games since 2021, the worst mark in the NFL. The Saints beat the Panthers 20-17 in Week 2, but that was also rookie Bryce Young’s second professional start, and Carolina averaged 5.3 yards per carry but did not have the volume with just 19 attempts. Meanwhile, New Orleans allowed four sacks in that game, and whoever starts at quarterback (Derek Carr is questionable with a concussion and shoulder and rib injuries) will be under duress, as the Saints rank 31st in pass block win rate. In addition, The Saints ranked 30th or worse in DVOA over the previous five weeks entering Week 13, and their pass rush ranks dead-last for the entire season.

This is a four-star play, as Saints head coach Dennis Allen has covered just 24% of the games in which his team has been favored (5-16-1 ATS), while Carolina is 8-7-1 ATS against New Orleans since 2016 and has covered five of the eight games played at the Superdome in that span.

We do not mind paying the slight extra juice at FanDuel and BetMGM, as those are the only two shops offering higher than +5.

NFL best bets made 12/7/2023 at 4:16 p.m. ET.

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