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Cameron Jordan #94 of the New Orleans Saints talks with Derek Carr #4 as we look at our Saints-Panthers predictions
Cameron Jordan #94 of the New Orleans Saints talks with Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints during a preseason game at Caesars Superdome on August 13, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images via AFP.

Our New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers predictions are based on the best NFL odds as we break down the first game of Monday's doubleheader.

Carolina Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, started his career 0-1 after the Panthers took a loss against the rival Atlanta Falcons last week. He'll stay within the NFC South while getting his first look at the 1-0 New Orleans Saints under the spotlight of Monday Night Football.

For a closer look at the players involved in this game, check out our Saints vs. Panthers player props!

And be sure to head to our Browns vs. Steelers predictions and Browns vs. Steelers player props for a look at the other Monday night game.

Here is our best Saints vs. Panthers prediction for Monday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saints vs. Panthers prediction: Monday Night Football

Under 40 (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: The total has now moved to 39.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The Under cashed in New Orleans’ last seven games dating back to 2022 and each of the previous five meetings between these NFC South rivals. Expect another defensive struggle on Monday night.

The Saints' offense hasn't had much consistency over the last several years, as Derek Carr became the third different quarterback to win a season opener in the previous four seasons. However, this wager is all about New Orleans' defense, which held nine straight opponents to 20 or fewer points, tying the longest streak in franchise history (1991).

Schedule makers didn't do Young any favors as he continues to learn and develop as an NFL quarterback. With his Week 1 loss to the Falcons, QBs selected #1 overall since 2003 are now 0-14-1 in their first career start.

Panthers quarterbacks ranked last in QBR (32), TD-INT ratio (30-34), and passing yards per game (183.4) over the previous two seasons, and the team traded away its best wide receiver, D.J. Moore, to move up to the No. 1 pick. There's no avenue for Young to lead the Panthers' offense to points against a Saints' D that ranked ninth, fourth, and fifth in points per game allowed over the last three seasons and fourth in opponent's Total QBR last year.

Meanwhile, New Orleans clearly missed running back Alvin Kamara in Week 1, as he's suspended for two more games (personal conduct policy). The Saints ran for just 69 yards and averaged 2.6 yards per carry against the Titans. The run game should struggle once again when facing a Panthers' defense ranked 13th in defensive efficiency last season.

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Saints vs. Panthers best odds

DraftKings, FanDuel (-110)

Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)Over (-110)/Under (-110)

For Under backers, DraftKings and FanDuel provide the best value, as they're the only two sportsbooks offering a total as high as 40. When comparing all of our best sports betting apps, no one charges more in juice to back one side or the other, so the betting splits are pretty even.

Saints vs. Panthers odds for Monday Night Football

Saints vs. Panthers odds analysis

The line movement throughout the week suggests sharp money came in on the Under. Caesars had the biggest total fluctuation, going from a look-ahead line of 42.5 to a low of 39 on Sunday. From there, the total reached 41 before settling back at 39.5. FanDuel had a similar range from 39 to 42.5, but its total rose a full point compared to a half-point when it reached 39.

All of our best sports betting sites agree, with New Orleans favored by 3 points, while FanDuel is the only shop juiced to the underdog (+114 to back the +3). FanDuel is also the sole book that never got to New Orleans -3.5, while all Panthers backers weighed in quickly at all other shops whenever +3.5 was available.

The moneyline odds range from New Orleans -155 at DraftKings to -167 at BetRivers. Young looks to improve the poor record of No. 1 overall draft picks in their second start, as the previous 26 are 5-21 SU and 10-15-1 ATS in their career second starts.

Monday Night Football game info

  • When: Monday, Sept. 18 at 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
  • How to watch: ESPN/ESPN2
  • Weather: 80 degrees, 13% chance of precipitation, 6-mph NNW wind

Saints-Panthers prediction made 9/15/23 at 8:59 p.m. ET

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