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Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs features in our Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions.
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs scrambles against Andre Cisco #5 of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on Jan. 21. David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hope to avoid an 0-2 start by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 2, as we share our top Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

It was a tough opening night for the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense without star tight end Travis Kelce. The Chiefs finished with four drops, and there wasn’t a single receiver with more than three catches in the loss to the Detroit Lions. 

Kelce carries a questionable tag ahead of Sunday’s Week 2 game, but he’s expected to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, according to Adam Schefter.

It took a 14-point fourth quarter from Jacksonville to top the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, and Jags wide receiver Calvin Ridley played a huge role in the victory with eight receptions for 101 yards and an end-zone visit.

It’s safe to say Ridley had no issues shaking off the rust in his Jacksonville debut.

Here is our best Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction and our NFL best bets for Week 2, NFL upset picks and NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction

Patrick Mahomes Over 298.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

For a majority of Thursday night’s game, the Lions’ defense looked better than the Chiefs’ offense. And yet, without wide-open drops, Mahomes could have racked up a lot of yards and led his team to victory. His 226-yard performance in Week 1 probably has a lot of bettors frustrated, but if Kelce plays - which we think he will - then this becomes an entirely different passing attack.

No matter who steps on the field for the Chiefs, the Jaguars’ secondary needs a lot of work. They allowed rookie Anthony Richardson to throw for 223 yards in his NFL debut. To put that in perspective, that would have been his fifth-best passing game with the Florida Gators last season.

Mahomes threw for 331 yards against the Jaguars in last year’s regular season, and while he only threw for 195 in the postseason, he was hampered by an ankle injury he suffered early in the game. There is no doubt that the playoff performance was the outlier. During last year’s regular season, he threw for more than 300 yards in 10 games while never throwing for under 200.

Rather than trying to determine which team has the advantage against the spread, or if these offenses will combine for more than 50 points, trust Mahomes to do what he does. 

Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler has also shared his insights on the two quarterbacks facing off in this Chiefs-Jaguars matchup with his Patrick Mahomes vs. Trevor Lawrence player props and predictions.

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Chiefs vs. Jaguars best odds

bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 298.5Over 301.5Over 298.5Over 298.5Over 298.5
-115-114-115-119-110

Four of the five major sportsbooks are in agreement about the total at 298.5. The only sportsbook offering a higher number is FanDuel, and the price for the higher number isn’t much better than what is being offered elsewhere. In fact, it’s a worse price than what’s offered at bet365.

With four sportsbooks offering the same total, this comes down to price. That makes bet365 the best place to wager. Don’t wait on this one. This number is going to go up throughout the week.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds

Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds analysis

The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites, and despite the Jaguars receiving 58% of wagers, the spread has grown to 3.5. If the public continues to back the Jags, perhaps oddsmakers will move this back to the key number of three. We don’t expect it to get any higher than four or lower than two, even when Kelce is officially announced as active.

The total opened at 51, and it has not moved yet. To this point, 62% of wagers back the Over, and we think that the number will go up ahead of kickoff. If and when Kelce is announced as active, this could go up as high as 53.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 87 degrees, 6-mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation

Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction made Thursday at 11:23 a.m. ET

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