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Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins catches a touchdown against Michael Davis of the L.A. Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sept. 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California as we share our favorite Dolphins vs. Patriots pick.
Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins catches a touchdown against Michael Davis of the L.A. Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sept. 10, 2023 in Inglewood, California. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images via AFP.

Here are our top Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps. Miami Dolphins star Tua Tagovailoa was as impressive as any quarterback in the league in Week 1, but New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick also has a proven track record of making life difficult for superstars at Gillette Stadium.

Good luck finding a better quarterback stat line in Week 1 than the numbers posted by Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for 466 passing yards in the high-scoring victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

The New England Patriots, meanwhile, head into Week 2 following a hard-fought 25-20 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles despite holding the defending NFC champions to a trio of field goals in the second half.

Can the Dolphins put up video game numbers again on Sunday Night Football, or will New England head coach Bill Belichick lead the Patriots to 1-1 by slowing down the Miami offense.

Here is our best Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction along with all our NFL picksNFL best bets and NFL upset picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction

Over 46.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

The Dolphins hung 36 points on the Chargers last week, and there was nothing fluky about it. Led by Tagovailoa's 466 passing yards, Miami’s 536 total offensive yards was the most by any team in Week 1 since 2019. The Phins also had an appetite for big plays, with zero of their seven scoring drives taking more than five minutes off the clock — music to an Over backer's ears.

As much as Belichick has a reputation for being a defensive genius, I’m not sure he can concoct something to shut down Dolphins running back Tyreek Hill and this Miami attack. He couldn't stop Hill in the past, allowing the speedster to score six touchdowns in six lifetime matchups versus the Patriots. Hill was in top form last week, hauling in 11 passes for 215 yards and two TDs.

Desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, New England knows it must put up points to beat the Dolphins. Miami’s defense was stout against the run last season but struggled badly in its first game under new coordinator Vic Fangio, allowing 234 yards and nearly six yards per carry. Meanwhile, Patriots QB Mac Jones threw for more than 300 yards in his first game in Bill O’Brien’s offense, but four turnovers prevented New England from scoring more than 20 points versus the Eagles.

This mid-40s total is more based on recent history between these AFC East rivals — four of the last six meetings went Under the total, with just one exceeding 44 points scored. It doesn’t reflect the current reality of both offenses. There's value in the Over all the way up to 48.5.

New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushing for Over 50.5 rushing yards is among our top Week 2 NFL player props. And, Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has evaluated the available markets to share his top Tua Tagovailoa player props and picks.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots best odds

DraftKings (-110)

O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110O46.5 -110
U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110U46.5 -110

We’ve listed DraftKings as the best place to bet the Dolphins-Patriots Over, but you could find the same 46.5 -110 price at any of the other top best sports betting apps as well. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds

Dolphins vs. Patriots odds analysis

Miami opened as a 2-point favorite and drew immediate betting interest, going up to an expensive -2.5 by the middle of the week and even moving to the key number of -3 at some shops. Barring injuries, that’s probably as high as it gets before kickoff, even though the public should be eager to back Miami’s potent offense in a prime-time matchup.

The total hadn’t budged at most of the best sports betting sites since opening at 46.5. Top recommended books like Caesars and BetMGM hadn’t even shaded their juice one way or the other as of Friday morning.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 17 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 57 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds

Dolphins-Patriots prediction made Friday, 9/15/23 at 10:05 a.m. ET

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