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Super Bowl Odds & Best Bets 2023: Predictions, Picks for Chiefs vs. Eagles

Mike Spector

Last Updated: February 12, 2023 1:06 PM EST • 3 min 63 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Two 16-3 football teams battle to become Super Bowl 57 champions, with the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Philadelphia Eagles. Here are our Chiefs-Eagles top Super Bowl picks based on the best NFL odds.

The Chiefs were the Super Bowl favorites entering the playoffs. Still, the Eagles' two dominant victories in the Divisional Round and the NFC Championship game by a combined 69-14 have made Philadelphia the favorite to win it all. The Eagles are the fifth team to win the Divisional Playoffs and conference championship by 21-plus points, and all of the previous four have won the Super Bowl, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Here are our best NFL bets for Super Bowl 57 (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Super Bowl expert predictions, Super Bowl bold predictions, and best Super Bowl betting sites.

NFL Schedule and Odds for Super Bowl 57

(odds via Caesars)

  • Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

NFL Best Bets for Super Bowl 57

  • Total: Chiefs vs. Eagles Over 50.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Jerick McKinnon Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Team Prop: Eagles Under 2.5 sacks (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Jalen Hurts interceptions head-to-head vs. Patrick Mahomes (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Super Bowl Top Picks

Total: Chiefs-Eagles Over 50.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a matchup of two quarterbacks with the two highest QBRs in the league when throwing from the pocket. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, in particular, has stepped up when it has mattered most, based on his QBR splits (including the playoffs). Hurts has the fifth-best QBR on third down (80), fifth-best QBR in the red zone (79), and best fourth-quarter QBR (84) in the league.

In addition, Hurts has improved tremendously as a passer within the pocket from his first two seasons to now. From 2020-21, Hurts ranked 29th in QBR, 32nd in completion percentage, and 30th in touchdown-to-interception ratio on pocket passes. This year, he ranks second in QBR and first in completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio on such passes. Add in that the Chiefs were the league's highest-scoring offense, and Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns this season, and this has all the makings of a shootout.

Over backers would be wise to head to BetMGM, which is offering nearly standard juice while at a line of 50.5. Several other competitors have moved to 51.

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.  

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Player Prop: Jerick McKinnon Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

On screen passes this season, including the playoffs, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks first in QBR (57), completion percentage (93%), passing touchdowns (five), and second in passing yards (574) among quarterbacks with a minimum of 20 attempts. The Chiefs also rank fifth with 6.6 yards per pass on screens this year. Thus, this is a solid four-star play as we expect McKinnon to be heavily utilized in the screen game to negate the Eagles' fierce pass rush, and he should see more targets than usual, given how banged up several Chiefs wide receivers are.

bet365 charges the lowest juice to back the Over at 20.5, while other sportsbooks like FanDuel are as high as 23.5 for McKinnon's receiving yards.

Check out our Super Bowl 57 SGP.

Team Prop: Eagles Under 2.5 sacks vs. Chiefs (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia's pass rush made history this year. The Eagles became just the second team since 1982 with five players to total eight or more sacks and was the first in NFL history with four players recording double-digit sacks in the regular season. They enter the Super Bowl needing five sacks to set the all-time single-season record and generate quarterback pressures on an NFL-best 32% of dropbacks. However, Mahomes threw an NFL-best 15 passing touchdowns under pressure this season. He also ranks second in QBR, first in sack percentage, and second in yards per dropbacks when under pressure (including the playoffs). 

This is our most confident five-star play, as Kansas City's offensive line had a 74.7% pass block win rate this season, the highest in the NFL in the last five seasons.

Check out our Chris Jones player props and Haason Reddick player props.

Player Prop: Jalen Hurts interceptions head-to-head vs. Patrick Mahomes (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We recognize we are getting plus-odds on this wager as Mahomes is likelier to throw the ball a lot more than Hurts. Still, Kansas City's pass rush is underrated, and we expect it to force Hurts into a mistake or two.

Kansas City's defense ranks No. 2 against the pass when applying pressure, while Philadelphia's passing offense ranks 18th when under pressure. The Chiefs allowed 4.7 yards per attempt when getting pressure (the fewest in the regular season), per Next Gen Stats. And in the playoffs, Kansas City's defense leads all teams in interceptions (three) and a 2.3 opposing passer rating when applying pressure. Meanwhile, Hurts has completed 46.1% of his passes under duress, the 12th-lowest in the regular season.

Check out our Patrick Mahomes player prop picks and Jalen Hurts player prop picks.

NFL best bets made 2/11/2022 at 7:51 a.m. ET.

Super Bowl prop bets

Prop bet enthusiasts have a lot to choose from for Super Bowl 57; here's a look at some of the more popular Super Bowl prop bets across all of the best sportsbooks:

Need help keeping track of your Super Bowl prop bets? Use our printable Super Bowl prop bet sheet! We also have Super Bowl bingo cards for up to four people to use!

Check out our best Super Bowl betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.