Skip to main content

Patrick Mahomes Props: Mahomes Odds, Predictions for Super Bowl Prop Bets 2023

Mike Spector

Last Updated: February 12, 2023 9:22 AM EST • 3 min 40 sec read.

Patrick Mahomes calls out plays as we focus on his top Super Bowl 57 player props.
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks on at the line of scrimmage against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first quarter in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 29, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via AFP.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes received his second NFL MVP award Thursday night. Can he add another Super Bowl MVP to his collection on Sunday? Read on for our top Patrick Mahomes player props for Super Bowl 57 based on the best NFL odds.

Mahomes led the NFL this season with 5,250 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns. He also led the Chiefs to the title of top-scoring offense in the regular season, and Kansas City became the first such team to make the Super Bowl since 2016. Mahomes was named a finalist for AP NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year in recognition of his fantastic season.

After making your Super Bowl picks and Chiefs Super Bowl team props, get some action on the main attraction for The Big Game with our best Mahomes props for Super Bowl 57.

Here are our best Patrick Mahomes player prop picks for Super Bowl 57 (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Jalen Hurts player prop picks, Super Bowl 57 MVP picks and Isiah Pacheco player prop picks.

Patrick Mahomes NFL player props for Super Bowl 57

  • Patrick Mahomes Over 290.5 passing yards (-120 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes -0.5 passing touchdowns H2H with Jalen Hurts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Patrick Mahomes player props

Patrick Mahomes Over 290.5 passing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia has allowed only one quarterback (Dak Prescott) to throw for 300-plus yards this season, but Mahomes is on a different level than who the Eagles are accustomed to facing. Mahomes is the only quarterback in the league to rank in the top three in QBR vs. both man and zone coverage (per NFL Next Gen Stats). In addition, much has been made of Philadelphia's defensive pressure (it already ranks in the top three all-time in sacks for a single season), but Mahomes is as solid as they come when facing pressure. When under duress this season (including the playoffs), Mahomes ranks second in QBR, first in sack percentage, and second in yards per dropback. 

This line is up slightly from 287.5 earlier in the week, so we are not making this a four or five-star play as some of the value is gone, but we are still getting a much better number at PointsBet compared to the 295.5 found at DraftKings.

Embed content p2J03mE9L-I image

Patrick Mahomes -0.5 passing touchdowns H2H with Jalen Hurts (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

To clarify, this bet would cash if Mahomes ends up with more passing touchdowns than Hurts. The -110 odds seem favorable given that the O/U of 1.5 on Hurts' passing touchdowns is juiced to the Under (-125), while Mahomes' O/U of 1.5 is heavily juiced to the Over at -215. 

Entering the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes ranked first among all quarterbacks on throws inside the pocket in QBR (73), passing touchdowns (35), and first down percentage (42%). This hurt the Cincinnati Bengals, against whom he accumulated 80% of his passing yards from inside the pocket. 

Compared to Hurts, Mahomes has averaged more passing yards per attempt (8.0 to 7.8), totaled more touchdowns (49 to 39), and has a higher passer rating (105.5 to 100.6). With Mahomes also having plenty of Super Bowl experience that Hurts does not have, and with the Eagles being committed to the running game, we expect this bet to cash easily as a solid five-star play.

Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

The Chiefs are +105 moneyline underdogs according to the Super Bowl odds, so we are getting decent value for Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (compared to slightly worse +125 odds at DraftKings) if Kansas City is the winning side.

Mahomes ranks in the top four among all quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts this season in passing yards per attempt (8.0), touchdowns-to-giveaways (49-13), and passer rating (105.5); and the Chiefs are 16-3 entering Super Bowl 57. In two career games against the league's No. 1 pass defense (which the Eagles are this year), Mahomes is 2-0, his team has averaged 36.5 points per game, and he has averaged 332.0 passing yards while throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. 

In what essentially amounts to a coin-flip game, we love the plus odds on this prop bets for Mahomes, as he will play a significant role if the Chiefs went on to the upset victory.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 2/9/2023 at 6:31 a.m. ET.

Super Bowl prop bets

Prop bet enthusiasts have a lot to choose from for Super Bowl 57; here's a look at some of the more popular Super Bowl prop bets across all of the best sportsbooks:

Need help keeping track of your Super Bowl prop bets? Use our printable Super Bowl prop bet sheet! We also have Super Bowl bingo cards for up to four people to use!

Check out our best Super Bowl betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.