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Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs raises the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium on Feb. 2, 2020 in Miami, Florida.
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs raises the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium on Feb. 2, 2020 in Miami, Florida. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP

Chris Stapleton will begin singing the first notes of the Super Bowl national anthem before we know it and the Big Game will be underway. Read on for our Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The consensus point spread across our best Super Bowl betting sites for Super Bowl 57 is Eagles -1.5, and there is much data to suggest this is as even of a matchup as possible. The Chiefs and Eagles enter the Big Game as their respective conference’s top seed, have identical 16-3 records, have each averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and have forced four turnovers apiece in the postseason.

In addition, each team’s quarterback ranks in the top four among all QBs with a minimum of 400 pass attempts in win-loss record, passing yards per attempt, touchdowns-to-giveaways, and passer rating. 

So what gives either team the edge in this projected coin-flip matchup?

Here is our best Super Bowl 57 prediction as the Chiefs take on the Eagles (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Super Bowl prediction: Chiefs vs. Eagles

Chiefs +1.5 (-110 via DraftKings)  ⭐⭐⭐

A bet on the Chiefs is not to disrespect Philadelphia’s pass defense that ranks No. 1 in passing yards per game allowed (179.8), passing yards allowed per attempt (5.5), and sacks (70). However, Kansas City’s path to offensive success is mainly because QB Patrick Mahomes is indefensible. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he is the only quarterback in the top three in QBR against zone and man coverage. In addition, he has won both career games when facing the league’s No. 1 pass defense, defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV and the Buffalo Bills in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round. In those games, the Chiefs averaged 36.5 points, and Mahomes threw for an average of 332 yards with a 5-2 TD-INT ratio.

Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler breaks down his 57 favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 57. Check out our Super Bowl expert predictions and Super Bowl bold predictions.

Philadelphia is attempting to become the first team since 1998 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns and win the Super Bowl. Thus, if Kansas City jumps out to an early lead, it should render the Eagles’ biggest strength (their rushing attack) less effective.

Defense prevailed in the previous two Super Bowl meetings between the No. 1 passing offense and the No. 1 passing defense. However, Mahomes has reveled in the underdog role in his career, going 6-3 straight up and 7-1-1 ATS in nine games as a ‘dog. And from a moneyline perspective, Kansas City won each of its last 10 games against NFC opponents. Mahomes has a 106.1 career passer rating in the playoffs (the highest all-time mark among quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 starts), and he will lead the Chiefs to at least a cover in this game.

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Chiefs vs. Eagles best odds

DraftKings (-110

-1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110)-1.5 (-112) | +1.5 (-108)-1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110)-1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110)-1.5 (-112) | +1.5 (-108)

With game time right around the corner, the spread among our top sports betting sites remains at 1.5 points in favor of the Eagles. FanDuel and PointsBet were the first of our best Super Bowl betting sites to increase the juice on Kansas City's side with -112 odds, listing the Eagles at -108. KC backers can still head to DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars for equal -110 odds on both sides.

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Super Bowl odds

  • Opening odds: The Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorites with the Over/Under set at 49.5
  • Super Bowl spread (as of Sunday, Feb. 12 at 4:15 p.m.): The consensus spread remains at Philadelphia -1.5 across our best sportsbooks heading toward kickoff. Late Sunday afternoon the odds began to shift, with the price on the Chiefs rising to -112 vig, with -108 odds available on Philadelphia at select sportsbooks.
  • Super Bowl Over/Under: The most common Over/Under line for Super Bowl 57 has ticked up to a flat 51. FanDuel and PointsBet also boosted the O/U to 51.5 but with the Under juiced to -114 and -115, respectively.
  • Super Bowl moneyline: The Eagles are laying moneyline odds of -118 to -125 with the Chiefs priced as high as +105 to pull off the Super Bowl upset.
  • Check out all of our best Super Bowl odds here.

Check out our look at Madden's Super Bowl prediction and which game odds cashed!

Chiefs vs. Eagles odds analysis

Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line swung wildly to as high as Philadelphia -2.5 at one point via BetMGM, DraftKings, and PointsBet. Chiefs backers would not let the line get to -3, and started weighing in heavily at the higher number, driving the line down to Eagles -1.5. Sixty-three percent of all point spread bets to this point have backed Philadelphia. 

The total unanimously rose from 49.5 to 50.5 across all sportsbooks and remained there for much of this week. However, as of Saturday night, several sportsbooks moved to 51, the highest the total has been since opening. Fifty-six percent of the action has backed the Over.

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Chiefs vs. Eagles game info

  • Date: Sunday, Feb. 12, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
  • Weather: Indoors

Chiefs-Eagles prediction made 2/9/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.

Super Bowl prop bets

Prop bet enthusiasts have a lot to choose from for Super Bowl 57; here's a look at some of the more popular Super Bowl prop bets across all of the best sportsbooks:

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