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Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins celebrates a first down in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots, and we offer our top Dolphins vs. Jets predictions for Black Friday.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins celebrates a first down in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

Miami faces the New York Jets in the NFL's first-ever Black Friday game for Thursday Night Football in Week 12, and we make our best Dolphins vs. Jets predictions based on the leading NFL odds.

The Miami Dolphins are riding high in the AFC East after securing a 7-3 record following a victorious showdown against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11. Their dominance at home continues to be a standout feature, boasting an impressive 5-0 record this season, a milestone the franchise hasn't reached since the turn of the millennium in 2000. This strong home performance has significantly contributed to their current leading position within their division.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been instrumental in propelling the Dolphins' offense, showcasing their dominance as they maintain a flawless record of 6-0 in 2023 whenever he manages to throw for a minimum of two touchdowns. However, in Week 12, Tagovailoa faces a formidable challenge posed by the highly skilled New York Jets secondary, setting the stage for an intense matchup that will test his abilities and strategic prowess.

For those Jets, they fell to 4-6 with a lopsided defeat to the Buffalo Bills. They'll be happy to return home, as New York has lost 10 straight road games against AFC East teams.

While the Dolphins put their trust in their franchise signal-caller, the Jets have once again benched 2021 second overall pick Zach Wilson. Tim Boyle will step up to serve as the starting quarterback on Friday, which means New York's defense will have to carry the load, as it has all season.

To accompany our Thursday Night Football odds and Dolphins-Jets player props, we have our best Dolphins vs. Jets prediction for their Black Friday game (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Jets prediction: Friday Night Football

Under 41.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This game should stay well Under the total due to how poorly the Jets' offense has been performing, and those struggles won't change with Boyle under center now. Of course, we're assuming New York’s defense keeps up its motivation level while needing to cover for the offensive shortcomings continuously.

New York entered last week with eight offensive touchdowns, making it the second team since 2010 with eight or fewer through nine games. Before its touchdown right before halftime against the Buffalo Bills (the team's only score of the game), New York hadn't notched a touchdown since the first quarter of Week 8. Additionally, there's been plenty of scoring leaguewide with 129 touchdowns in Weeks 9 and 10, but the Jets didn't contribute.

New York is averaging just 8.0 points per game during a three-game losing streak. And after entering last week with a league-low 25.0% third-down conversion rate (the league average was 39.0% entering Week 11, according to Sharp Football Analysis), the Jets went 0-for-11 on third down against the Bills.

The Jets also committed four turnovers, but they still held up in the red zone while allowing one touchdown and three field goals to a Buffalo offense that entered the week ranked third in red-zone touchdown percentage. The Jets also did a solid job on Bills running back James Cook, limiting him to 4.3 yards per carry after he came in with a 6.3 yards-per-carry average during the second half of the season.

But the Jets allowed six sacks too, which was largely a product of the team using its eighth different offensive line combination when Mekhi Becton was carted off due to an ankle injury.     

Meanwhile, Miami’s defense comes into the game with a ton of momentum after forcing four turnovers (three interceptions and one turnover on downs) and three punts across the Las Vegas Raiders’ seven second-half possessions. Given how much New York relies on turnovers to generate offense, we would expect a more conservative game plan from a Dolphins team that's tied for the 21st-most turnovers (16) in the league.

Tyreek Hill’s 1,222 receiving yards are the most through 10 games of a season during the Super Bowl era. But one of the best cornerback tandems in the league, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, will limit his big-play potential. 

Our Phil Wood shares that concern in his Tyreek Hill prop picks, and Connor Cooper shares why Miami's passer will also be limited in his Tua Tagovailoa prop picks.


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Dolphins vs. Jets best odds

FanDuel (-110)

Under 41Under 41.5Under 41Under 41Under 41
-110-110-110 -110-110

Under backers get an easy choice of FanDuel as their go-to shop, as it's alone among our best sportsbooks while offering a total as high as 41.5 points. We would play this line down to 41, and it could fall even further if the chance of afternoon rain increases throughout the week.

The Jets are riding a five-game Under streak entering this matchup.

Dolphins vs. Jets odds for Thursday Night Football

Dolphins vs. Jets odds analysis

Any line movement on the total to this point has come in support of the Under. FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 all offered an opening number of 42 on Sunday night, while DraftKings has lowered a half-point from 41.5 to 41. We're seeing reverse line movement based on the early betting splits, as 61% of the wagers thus far have been placed on the Over.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with a point spread of Dolphins -7.5 and standard -110 juice on either side. FanDuel has experienced the most significant line movement, going from an opening of -6.5 and plowing through the key number of seven. Caesars went from -7.5 to -8 briefly before ticking down a half-point, while DraftKings moved off an opening number of -7 to -7.5.

Early wagers are more than 69% in favor of Miami, and the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games when facing New York.

Friday Night Football game info

  • When: Friday, Nov. 24 at 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Weather: 50 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph north winds

Dolphins-Jets prediction made 11/20/2023 at 3:54 p.m. ET

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