Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds for Black Friday: Predictions for Dolphins vs. Jets
The New York Jets could do what few teams have done this year — slow the Miami Dolphins offense — and we anticipate them accomplishing just that as we formulate our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Entering Week 12, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is fourth in the NFL MVP odds. His display last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, amassing 325 yards, marked the fifth instance this year where he surpassed the 300-yard plateau in a game. Entering Week 12 play, he was just 104 yards behind the league-leading Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders.
The upcoming clash between the Miami Dolphins, led by Tagovailoa, and the New York Jets poses a formidable challenge for Miami's offense, considering the Jets' defense is staunch, allowing just 178.7 passing yards per game. The Jets, aiming to break a three-game losing streak, are driven to stay competitive in the AFC and secure a Wild Card spot, intensifying their determination against the Dolphins. The pressure mounts for Miami as they prepare to navigate a resolute Jets defense keen on reversing their season's momentum.
To accompany all of our Week 12 predictions, our Dolphins vs. Jets prediction, and our Tyreek Hill player props and Dolphins vs. Jets props, here are our best Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for the Dolphins vs. Jets Week 12 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Black Friday
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 touchdown passes (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 3.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
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Tua Tagovailoa player props vs. Jets
Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa has gone Over this passing yardage total in seven of his 10 starts, but most of them weren’t against a defense as good as the New York Jets. He also hasn’t been as prolific through the air on the road, throwing for 249 at the New England Patriots, 216 at the Philadelphia Eagles, and 193 against the Kansas City Chiefs on a neutral field in Germany.
New York has held eight of the 10 opposing quarterbacks it has faced below the 250 passing yards mark, including Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen. At home, the Jets have been even better, allowing 217 yards or fewer in four of their five games.
Tagovailoa’s passing yardage prop had already taken some action to the Under before the time of writing, dropping five yards from the opener, but I still think there’s value on this prop down to 245.
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Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 touchdown passes (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
The Miami Dolphins have struggled to finish drives over the past month, reaching the end zone just twice in games against the Raiders, Chiefs, and Eagles. And much like Tagovailoa’s passing yards have been lower on the road, his passing touchdowns have also been lower as the visitor, managing one or fewer in each of his last four games away from Hard Rock Stadium.
Last week’s 32-6 blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills was the first time all season the Jets have given up more than two touchdown passes, and just the third time they’ve allowed more than one. On a national television stage Friday afternoon, expect a bounce-back effort from a proud New York defense.
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Tua Tagovailoa Over 3.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Mobility used to be a big part of Tagovailoa’s game, running for 10-plus yards in five of his 13 games in 2021. Multiple concussions and other injuries have caused him to cut down on his scrambles out of the pocket, but we’re starting to see him scamper a bit more now that he’s been able to stay healthy. Tagovailoa has run for at least six yards in each of his last three games and four-plus in five of seven.
He may not have a choice but to use his legs this week against a New York defensive line that ranks fifth in PFF pressure grade. Other quarterbacks have had to do that this season when facing the Jets, who have allowed opposing quarterbacks to run for at least 40 yards in four of their last seven games.
At this low number, it could take just one broken play forcing Tagovailoa to flee the pocket for a short gain to cash this prop.
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Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made 11/22/2023 at 4:06 p.m. ET.
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