Cowboys vs. Vikings Week 8 Picks: Back The 'Boys In Shootout

The Dallas Cowboys (5-1) and Minnesota Vikings (3-3) both return from their bye week to meet on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys have not lost since opening night in Tampa Bay while the Vikings are the only team to score more than 20 points on undefeated Arizona, only losing after missing a 37-yard field goal.

The Cowboys own the only perfect record against the spread (6-0) this year and are a 2.5-point favorite over the Vikings (3-3 ATS) at many of the top sportsbooks with a projected total of 55 points, the highest game in Week 8. The over is 5-1 in Dallas games, so it has been a great season for high-scoring games and covers if you're a Dallas fan or bettor. A year ago, the Cowboys were the worst bet in football (5-11 ATS).

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 8 matchup between the Cowboys and the Vikings (Odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Cowboys vs. Vikings Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 31, 8:15 p.m. ETTV: NBCLocation: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MNWeather: Indoors

Cowboys vs. Vikings Odds Analysis

The spread can be found at Dallas -3 on certain sites, but you’ll want to get Dallas -2.5 if you're on the Cowboys' side of things and Minnesota +3 if you're on the Vikings. Out of the common spreads in NFL games, the number three is more likely to result in a push than six, seven, or 10. Seven of the 12 games these teams have played this year have come down to a clutch field-goal attempt in the final seconds, so there is a good chance this will be a tight one too where every point counts.

The total of 55 points makes this one of the highest projected games of the 2021 season. So far, in games with a total of at least 54 points, the over is 7-6. Both teams should be well rested after a bye week as there have been some lingering injuries for Dak Prescott, Dalvin Cook, and Amari Cooper this season.

Cowboys vs. Vikings Betting Picks

Cowboys -2.5 (-118) ????Over 55 (-112) ????

SEE ALSO: Buccaneers vs. Saints Week 8 Picks

Cowboys vs. Vikings Predictions

Cowboys -2.5 (-118)

When these teams met a year ago, backup quarterback Andy Dalton led the Cowboys to a 31-28 comeback win in the fourth quarter, a crushing loss to a Minnesota team that was trying to get back to .500. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had a 140.1 passer rating in that game, his highest ever in a loss. He is 2-7 as a starter against Dallas in his career.

The Cowboys have been playing very well this year with Prescott back under center. While both offenses should move the ball with ease between the 20s in this game, situational football will likely decide it. The Cowboys are No. 5 in third-down conversion rate (46.7 percent) but only tied for 24th in red-zone touchdown percentage (56 percent). The Vikings are tied for 17th on third down (40 percent) but are eighth in the red zone (66.7 percent).

Minnesota has had a better defense than Dallas, but the Cowboys have done an incredible job of creating turnovers. Trevon Diggs has an interception in all six games this season. Regression is coming, but the Cowboys have a 10-game streak of forcing multiple turnovers and getting one of them late in a matchup like this that figures to come down to the wire could decide the game.

If the Vikings didn't fumble in overtime in Cincinnati and if they hadn't missed a 37-yard field goal in Arizona, they would be 5-1 right now, just like Dallas. At the same time, they would still be the lesser team on paper. Dallas ranks No. 2 in net yards per drive and No. 4 in net points per drive, the signs of an elite team. Minnesota is No. 15 in both categories. The Minnesota offense has also gone three-and-out at the fourth-highest rate (26.8 percent) in the league while the Cowboys own the second-lowest rate (12.5 percent).

Finally, the Cowboys are only the seventh team since 2001 to start 6-0 ATS, joining the 2003 Vikings, 2007 New England Patriots, 2008 Tennessee Titans, 2009 New Orleans Saints, 2009 Denver Broncos, and 2018 Kansas City Chiefs. Two of those teams infamously missed the playoffs while the other four were all No. 1 seeds. Three of them hosted a conference championship game and two reached the Super Bowl. Those teams were 3-3 ATS in their seventh game of the season, though it was that seventh game where the 2003 Vikings and 2009 Broncos began to be exposed as fraudulent.

The Cowboys may not be destined for the Super Bowl again, but they feel closer to a legitimate contender than they do a 9-8 fraud. I'll take Dallas to go to 7-0 ATS this year.

Over 55 points (-112)

This was a 31-28 matchup in 2020 and that was with Dalton at quarterback instead of Prescott. All six of Cousins' games against Dallas since 2016 have had at least 50 points scored. These offenses are arguably operating at their highest levels this season, so I do expect this to be a high-scoring affair where 30-27 or 34-30 is not out of the question.

In fact, the last three Dallas games have finished with 64 combined points, and all but one Dallas game this season (20-17 win versus the Chargers that had long drives to limit possessions) had at least 60 points scored. This makes Dallas the third team in NFL history to have at least five 60-point games in their first six games, joining the 2000 St. Louis Rams and 2000 San Francisco 49ers.

With so much firepower on both sides, I think the over is a great pick to end your Sunday NFL picks in Week 8.

SEE ALSO: Dolphins vs. Bills Week 8 Picks

Picks made 10/27/2021 at 4:37 a.m. ET