C.J. Stroud NFL Player Props, Odds Week 13: Predictions for Broncos vs. Texans
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud looks to continue his prolific rookie season in Week 13 against the Denver Broncos, and we have you covered with our top C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions based on the NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.
Through the first 12 weeks of the season, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has run away with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award and has even made a compelling case as the NFL MVP.
The rookie quarterback will look to keep it rolling against the Denver Broncos, whose defense has bounced back in recent weeks after getting torched to start the season. Will it be able to contain Stroud, or will the rookie dominate another secondary?
A win for Stroud and the Texans will seriously improve Houston's playoff positioning and will bolster the rookie's already award-worthy campaign.
In addition to our Broncos vs. Texans predictions and our Week 13 player props, here are our best C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for the Broncos vs. Texans Week 13 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for Week 13
- C.J. Stroud longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- C.J. Stroud Over 33.5 passing attempts (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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C.J. Stroud player props
C.J. Stroud longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
As our Mike Spector detailed in his NFL Week 13 player props and best bets, the Broncos' pass defense has been much improved over the last few weeks, ranking near the top of the league in virtually every metric since an epic collapse against the Miami Dolphins in Week 3.
One area that remains a serious issue? Explosive plays.
Entering Week 13, Denver ranks 30th in explosive play rate allowed and 18th in opponent explosive pass play rate. The Broncos also rank 25th in opponent yards per attempt (7.0) and own the NFL's third-worst success rate (43.1%) — a number that's jumped up to 45.2% since Week 6, even as other metrics signal improvement.
The Texans' offense ranks second in explosive pass play rate, and Stroud ranks second in yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per completion (13.1). He's also completed at least one pass of 34-plus yards in four straight games and seven of his 11 starts, which doesn't include this moonshot from last week:
This prop total is a tick higher than that number, but Stroud has cleared it twice in the last four weeks and faces a favorable matchup this week. Expect at least one long ball from the rookie passer on Sunday.
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C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is less about Stroud and more of a nod to this Denver defense, which has been forcing turnovers at a historic rate over the last two months.
Through the first five weeks of the season, the Broncos turned over opponents just five times combined. Since then, they've generated 14 takeaways in six weeks, which included a three-week stretch with 12 takeaways — the most by any team in a three-game stretch since 1997.
Denver has forced a turnover on a ridiculous 25% of opposing drives since Week 6, and it's picked off at least one pass in seven of the last eight weeks. Notably, both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen threw multiple interceptions against this defense during that stretch.
Stroud was virtually flawless through the first eight starts of his career, but he's thrown four interceptions in the last three weeks and faces among his toughest matchups of the season against this opportunistic defense.
This prop is dealing at plus-money odds across our best sports betting apps, but the best price is +120 via DraftKings. You can also bet on Stroud to throw two INTs (+600) or three INTs (+1650) at bet365, both of which are worth a (very) small play.
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C.J. Stroud Over 33.5 passing attempts (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a pretty straightforward numbers play on Stroud, who has attempted at least 36 passes in four straight games and exceeded this prop total in seven of 11 starts this season.
It's not immediately obvious to me why this prop is even dealing so low given Stroud's immense volume over the last month. Sure, the Broncos prefer to play a ball-control approach, but they've still seen opponents attempt 35-plus passes in four of the last eight weeks — including a whopping 42 attempts from the Browns last week.
The Texans should lean into the run game more against an inconsistent Broncos rush defense, but I'd still be surprised if we don't see Stroud take center stage in a game that Houston needs to win to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture.
The pricing from some of our other best sportsbooks also signal value here. The Over is dealing at -125 at DraftKings, -127 at Caesars, and -130 at FanDuel, so this -105 price at BetMGM feels like stellar value.
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C.J. Stroud player prop picks made 12/1/2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET.
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