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Titans vs. Patriots Week 12 Picks: New England Looks for Statement Win

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Titans vs. Patriots Week 12 Picks: New England Looks for Statement Win
Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots celebrates with David Andrews #60. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via AFP.

The Tennessee Titans visit the New England Patriots in a key Week 12 AFC battle. We break it down with our Titans-Patriots picks.

The Patriots (7-4) return home off a 25-0 Thursday Night Football win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11. They seek their sixth straight victory, and they covered the spread in each of their last five wins to move to 7-4 against the number for the season.

The Titans (8-3) were stunned in a 22-13 home loss to the Houston Texans last Sunday. That loss snapped a six-game winning streak of their own. They enter Week 12 off of back-to-back non-covers but are still 7-4 against the spread through 11 games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Titans and Patriots (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Titans vs. Patriots Week 12 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Weather: 40 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 7 mph winds

Titans vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

This line opened with the Patriots favored by 6 points but has increased to 6.5 or 7 points, depending on the book. FanDuel Sportsbook has a line of 6.5 but the juice is on the Patriots with -115 odds. New England is favored by as much as -325 on the moneyline at PointsBet for an implied win probability of 76.47%.

The projected point total has dropped slightly from an opener of 44.5. A line of 44 or 43.5 is being offered at most legal US books with -110 odds on either side.

Titans vs. Patriots Picks

Patriots -6.5 (-110) ★★
Under 43.5 (-110) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 12 Updated Odds and Line Moves

Titans vs. Patriots Predictions

Patriots -6.5 (-110)

The Patriots are just 2-4 straight up on their home field but an adequate 3-3 against the spread. The Titans are 4-1 SU and ATS on the road; however, the team that lost 22-13 at home to the rival Texans is clearly not the same one that built up those trends.

Tennessee remains without running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver Julio Jones, who are on injured reserve. WR A.J. Brown (chest) and RB D’Onta Foreman (triceps) are also banged up and far less than 100% healthy. New England head coach Bill Belichick will be licking his chops to face a suddenly one-dimensional offense that managed just 36 total points over the last two games.

The Patriots are eighth in rush defense DVOA and fourth in run stop win rate and second in pass-defense DVOA. They’re third in the NFL with 21 total takeaways through 11 games, and the Titans have committed 17 turnovers, including four interceptions by QB Ryan Tannehill against the Texans’ inferior secondary last week.

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is an Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite and rising MVP contender. His ascension has been largely boosted by the emergence of RB Damien Harris (neck) and TE Hunter Henry (neck). While both were limited in early-week practices, they should be expected to suit up on Sunday.

If so, the Patriots will be able to build a lead against a Titans defense that has slipped to 18th and 13th against the run and pass, respectively, by DVOA.

Under 43.5 (-110)

The Pats hung 45 points on the Cleveland Browns in a 38-point beatdown in Week 10, but their other two most recent winning margins were 24-6 against the Carolina Panthers and 25-0 against the Falcons. Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have shown a commitment to taking the ball out of Jones’ right hand once they have a safe lead.

New England is ninth in the NFL with a run-play percentage of 44.86 that has been on the rise over its ongoing win streak. Don’t expect that to change, especially with the defense being fully capable of stifling the Titans' once-vaunted attack.

Both teams operate at a bottom-10 pace on offense due to the Patriots' present, and Titans' past heavy lean on the run game. New England also forces its opponents to play at the third-slowest pace in the league when holding a lead of seven or more points. 

The injury-ravaged Titans won’t be a threat to the Under in what’s likely to be an extended run of garbage time.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Titans-Patriots picks made on 11/25/2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET.