By now, you've surely assessed the latest 2024 Super Bowl odds and made most of your Super Bowl predictions with the Kansas City Chiefs set to face the San Francisco 49ers at 6:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
We've already broken down the best way to approach Super Bowl parlays, which can be an entertaining and potentially lucrative way to profit off your favorite Super Bowl prop bet odds with a "Super Bowl script" of your creation.
So we've put together our best Chiefs vs. 49ers same-game parlay (SGP) to enjoy for the Big Game on Sunday, which includes two of my favorite Super Bowl player props to bet individually and in a parlay.
In addition to our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl long-shot bets, here are our best Chiefs vs. 49ers parlay predictions (odds via our best Super Bowl betting sites; confidence for NFL picks based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. 49ers parlay for Super Bowl 2024
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Chiefs ML (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 completions (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce anytime TD (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +750 via DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA
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Super Bowl SGP predictions
Chiefs ML (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Any great SGP starts with a pick on the game itself, and we're backing the Chiefs to win their third Super Bowl in the last five seasons.
The first one came against the 49ers, whose defense was much more daunting in 2020 than it is heading into Sunday's contest. San Francisco ranks 28th in PFF defensive grade since Week 15, and it surrendered 442 yards and 28 first downs to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship.
I think Mahomes and Co. will find success on Sunday (more on that below), but I'm also skeptical of 49ers QB Brock Purdy in his title debut against the Chiefs, who posted the NFL's second-best pressure rate (27.8%) in the regular season. Purdy has struggled under duress this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he commits a costly turnover that ultimately decides this game.
If you're betting the Kansas City moneyline as a standalone bet, I'd stay away from this market-worst price at DraftKings, but it is one of just two of our best sports betting sites that lets you combine this bet with our next leg. And that's where the value lies.
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 completions (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week, Mahomes was supposed to face the toughest test of his entire career against an all-time great Baltimore Ravens defense. Instead, he surgically picked that unit apart with an array of short passes and precision throws downfield, finishing 30-for-39 for 241 yards and a touchdown.
That wasn't a result of game script or a mid-game adjustment. It was a deliberate approach against the Ravens' zone-heavy scheme, which excelled at taking away the deep ball at the expense of easy completions. I'd expect a very similar strategy against the 49ers, who employ zone coverage at the NFL's fourth-highest rate (63%) while allowing the fifth-most completions per game (24).
Kansas City is also facing some injury issues up front, which could further push this group to emphasize the quick passing game and use screens and jet sweeps as an extension of the outside run game. Everything about this matchup screams a high-volume day for Mahomes in the fourth Super Bowl start of his career.
As if that's not enough, we're getting an extra boost by adding this leg, which is calculated as having a negative correlation with the rest of our parlay. Most sportsbooks prevent this bet from even being combined with Kansas City's moneyline, so take advantage of this oddity at DraftKings if you can.
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Travis Kelce anytime TD (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
I would love to fade Kelce amid the hysteria surrounding the Chiefs star and his celebrity girlfriend, who is the focus of the seemingly never-ending Taylor Swift Super Bowl prop bets (and our Swiftie Bingo Challenge). In reality, I can't ignore what profiles as a strong matchup for the 34-year-old tight end.
While Kelce is as tough to cover man-to-man as any tight end in the league, he's virtually impossible to defend in zone coverage. He showed that last week, when he torched the Ravens' defense with 11 catches for 116 yards and a score - which came one week after his two-touchdown performance in the NFL Divisional Round.
As mentioned above, the 49ers employ zone coverage at a prolific rate, which is a tough way to make a living against Kelce. The officiating crew for Sunday's game also tends to let players decide matters on the field - another positive sign for the physical 6-foot-5, 250-pound tight end, especially in the red zone.
Mahomes and Kelce connected for the first of three Chiefs touchdowns in the fourth quarter of that epic comeback win over the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Yes, that means this exact parlay would have hit in these teams' first meeting four years ago (see our Super Bowl rematch props for more on that angle), and I like our chances of cashing this +750 ticket on Sunday.
Chiefs-49ers SGP picks made Thursday at 5:30 a.m. ET.
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