Super Bowl Long-Shot Bets, Odds 2024: Bold Predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers
We're highlighting our best long-shot bets and bold predictions for the Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl 2024 using the best NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
There's no wrong way to attack the seemingly endless Super Bowl prop bet odds for this year's Big Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
One particularly thrilling approach is to include a few long-shot bets in your Super Bowl predictions, especially when there's a strategy behind them. This is where we step in, as we've meticulously searched through every market (literally) from our best NFL betting sites to showcase the most promising long shots for Super Bowl 58.
In addition to our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, here are our best Super Bowl 2024 bold predictions using the best NFL odds from our best sports betting sites. If you're looking for more long-shot value, check out our best Super Bowl parlays.
Best Super Bowl 2024 long shot predictions
Here's a look at 10 long-shot bets that we've identified as having possible value in Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, as well as a further breakdown of a few of my favorites.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that any of these will hit, but I am personally wagering on every single bet highlighted in the table below. I've also included a link to place the bet yourself, as well as the implied probability as calculated by our odds converter:
| Long-shot bet | Betting odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Juszczyk 1st reception | +3000 via DraftKings | 3.23% |
| Noah Gray 1st to 30 receiving yards | +3500 via DraftKings | 2.78% |
| Elijah Mitchell fastest ball-carrier | +4000 via FanDuel | 2.44% |
| Elijah Mitchell longest rush of game | +6000 via DraftKings | 1.64% |
| Kadarius Toney longest reception of game | +7500 via DraftKings | 1.32% |
| Mecole Hardman most air yards on reception | +8000 via FanDuel | 1.23% |
| Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards | +10000 via BetMGM | 0.99% |
| Nick Bosa to win MVP | +12500 via BetMGM | 0.79% |
| Noah Gray most receiving yards | +17000 via FanDuel | 0.58% |
| Trent McDuffie wins MVP | +60000 via FanDuel | 0.17% |
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Super Bowl bold predictions
Kyle Juszczyk 1st reception
Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings
This bet may not have quite the long odds as some of our other bold predictions, but this is a screaming value relative to the rest of the market. And it could legitimately cash on Super Bowl Sunday.
At this point in his career, Juszczyk might best be known as the husband for Taylor Swift's favorite new tailor - whose designs are featured in our Taylor Swift Super Bowl prop bets - but the eight-time Pro Bowl fullback remains a key piece of the league's most efficient offense.
Juszczyk is dealing anywhere from +900 to +1200 across our NFL prop betting sites to record the 49ers' first reception, which he nearly did in last week's NFC Championship when he saw the first target from 49ers QB Brock Purdy. He also had three catches in Super Bowl LIV and scored his team's first touchdown, too.
Clearly, Shanahan isn't afraid to rely on his 235-pound fullback, who is also +1000 via BetMGM to score a touchdown. If you're a true sicko like me, you'll bet Juszczyk to record the game's first rush (+9000 via DraftKings) and first down (+3500 via DraftKings), but this is the best value of them all.
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Elijah Mitchell longest rush of game
Best odds: +6000 via DraftKings
Mitchel is the definition of a long-shot target in a game like this. There's a high chance that he does absolutely nothing - he's priced at O/U 1.5 rushing attempts across our best sportsbooks - but if he gets a shot, watch out.
The former sixth-round pick was a featured focus in this offense as a rookie in 2021, when he rushed for 963 yards on 4.7 yards per carry, and his 6.2 yards per carry would have ranked among the league leaders in 2022 had he stayed healthy. He's had a much smaller role in 2023, though, hence these long odds.
Yet the third-year back scored a touchdown in the NFC Championship, in relief of Christian McCaffrey, who briefly left the game due to a shoulder injury that nobody seems to be talking about. Sure, CMC is probably healthy and will certainly play on Sunday - but are we sure he'll get the full workload like usual?
If he doesn't, Mitchell has elite speed - he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.32 seconds - and could easily break one loose if given the chance. I love the value on this bet and Mitchell to lead the game in rushing yards, which is dealing at +10000 at BetMGM despite featuring +3000 odds elsewhere. That would likely take a CMC injury, but this wager could cash on one play.
Kadarius Toney longest reception of game
Best odds: +7500 via DraftKings
Editor's note: ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Sunday morning that Toney isn't expected to play in the Super Bowl.
Remember when I said these are long shots for a reason? It's easy to see why with Toney, who has been the face of the Chiefs' receiver woes this season and is currently embroiled in a public battle with his employer over his injury status.
As a result, our best live betting sites are offering long-shot odds on Toney to do just about anything on Sunday. Let's not forget, though, that the former first-round pick scored the go-ahead touchdown in Super Bowl 57 and remains the most purely talented receiver on Kansas City's roster - or at least the best deep threat.
That's what makes this wager so appealing. If Toney comes in for one deep shot, he could cash this long-shot wager even if that's all he does for the game. You can also bet him to finish with the most receiving yards (+4000 via DraftKings), but this feels like a much better value.
Nick Bosa to win Super Bowl MVP
Best odds: +12500 via BetMGM
I don't have to make much of a case for Bosa to win MVP, as he's already one of the most popular bets in this market and has seen his Super Bowl MVP odds shorten in the days leading up to kickoff.
The former top-three pick is just one year removed from winning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and he had a sack and a forced fumble when these teams met in the Super Bowl in 2020. He had two sacks in the NFC Championship and could have a field day against the Chiefs' injury-depleted offensive line.
I'm also compelled by the long odds on Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones to win MVP (+15000 via BetMGM), but we saw him dominate in Super Bowl LIV only for Mahomes to steal MVP honors, anyway. If Bosa plays like the game-wrecker he is and helps the 49ers win this rematch, he'll likely get credit for shutting down Mahomes. He has a real shot to win this award and should be included in your Super Bowl MVP predictions.
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Trent McDuffie to win Super Bowl MVP
Best odds: +60000 via FanDuel
I'm sorry ... 600/1? Are those odds for real? I couldn't believe my eyes when I first saw this price at FanDuel, and it might be my favorite ultra-long shot bet that I've ever made on the Super Bowl.
McDuffie may not be a household name like Bosa, but the second-year cornerback emerged as an All-Pro this season and is a key reason why the Chiefs boast one of the best pass defenses in the league. He finished sixth in PFF grade among cornerbacks in 2023 and finished with three sacks and five forced fumbles.
Those are ridiculous numbers from a defensive back, which speaks to his versatility in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's scheme. I'm intrigued by his long odds to record the Chiefs' first sack (+2800 via BetMGM), as well as his odds to record an interception (+1000 via BetMGM) and to finish with multiple picks (+18000 via FanDuel).
If he does bait Purdy into multiple INTs - which has a 0.55% implied probability, per FanDuel - he'd have an excellent shot to take home MVP honors, especially if he can add a sack or forced fumble. These odds imply a 0.17% chance of him winning the award, which is far too low.
While it's uncommon for a defensive player to win MVP, it has happened nine times, including twice in the last 10 years. McDuffie might be the best defender for the Chiefs, and if he plays like it Sunday, this has a (small) chance of cashing.
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How to bet Super Bowl long shots
Let's acknowledge something that may seem obvious but is incredibly important when placing wagers at long odds: all of these bets are long shots for a reason, and you shouldn't expect any of them to cash.
That doesn't mean they won't cash - otherwise, we wouldn't bet them. Rather, making long-shot bets (or any bet for that matter) is a game of probability, as you're trying to identify which seemingly unlikely events are more likely to occur than the odds from our best sports betting apps might suggest.
Take, for example, the possibility of a touchdown on the opening kickoff. Many of our best sportsbooks are offering +10000 odds on this year's opening kickoff being returned for a touchdown. That would net a return of $1,000 for every $10 wagered, which seems like one heck of a way to start Super Bowl 58.
There's only one problem: it's incredibly unlikely to happen. As we discussed in our breakdown of the Super Bowl opening kickoff touchback odds, we've seen just one opening kickoff returned for a TD in Super Bowl history, and only four of 587 kickoffs (0.68%) were returned for touchdowns during the 2023 NFL regular season.
Of course, that did happen in Super Bowl 41, so it's not impossible that it could occur again. Is it greater than a 1% chance, as those 100/1 odds imply? Probably not. Therefore, it wouldn't make sense to place that bet, even if the odds are compelling at a glance.
Therein lies the key to betting on long shots: balancing the likelihood that something might happen with the implied probability that it'll occur on Super Bowl Sunday.
Super Bowl betting odds pages
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