Rams vs. Packers Week 12 Picks: Back the Reverse Line Movement

Mike Randle

Last Updated: November 26, 2021 8:42 AM EST • 3 min 6 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 31: Darrell Henderson #27 of the Los Angeles Rams catches the ball and runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Houston, Texas. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Carmen Mandato / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Green Bay Packers host the Los Angeles Rams in a Week 12 matchup that is potentially a preview of the NFC Championship game. Find out where we lean in our Packers versus Rams picks.

These two teams have been among the best in the NFL all season and have combined for a 15-6 record. However, both have stumbled recently. Green Bay has lost two of its last three games, with quarterback Aaron Rodgers slowly recovering from COVID-19. Los Angeles has lost two games in a row, including a 31-10 thrashing by division-rival San Francisco.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Rams and Packers (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Rams vs. Packers Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WIWeather: cloudy

Rams vs. Packers Odds Analysis

Green Bay actually opened as a three-point favorite at most books, falling consistently throughout the week to the current line of Rams -1.5. As usual, the Packers are receiving the majority of bets and money, yet the line continues to move in their favor. The last game between these two teams was in last year's NFC divisional playoff game, where Green Bay won 32-18 to advance to the NFC Championship.

The Packers (8-3) have enjoyed a strong season against the spread, including a perfect 4-0 record at home. The Rams (4-6) are below .500 ATS, including just 2-3 on the road.

Rams vs. Packers Picks

Rams -1.5 (-111) ????Under 47.5 (-110) ????

Rams vs. Packers Predictions

Rams -1.5 (-111)

Los Angeles is hoping its bye week can help reset a season that once had the Rams looking like the best team in the NFL. Their two-game losing streak followed a fantastic 7-1 start, with quarterback Matthew Stafford looking like an MVP candidate.

The Rams offense ranks among the NFL's best, currently sitting at eighth overall in DVOA. Los Angeles is 10th in passing efficiency and seventh in rushing efficiency, making it one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL.

Green Bay's defense has improved over the past few weeks, but still ranks 26th in run defense efficiency. Look for the Rams to skew run-heavy with Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel. Coming off their bye week, head coach Sean McVay stated the importance of running the ball to provide better offensive balance. He also noticed the discrepancy between the Rams' rushing efficiency and their 24th ranked 97.9 rushing yards per game.

Also worth noting? Per BetLabs, McVay is 3-1 in his career with the Rams coming off a bye week, and 13-5-1 (72.7%) coming off a loss.

Few teams have a cornerback who can match up with Green Bay wideout Davante Adams, but Los Angeles certainly does. Jalen Ramsey ranks first overall in PFF's cornerback grades, including first overall in coverage.

In each of the Rams' losses, their defense has allowed 150 rushing yards or more. Due to their stout pass defense led by Ramsey, Green Bay will have to find a way to gain yards on the ground. While lead running back Aaron Jones is making progress from his knee injury, he likely won't be fully healthy or effective in his first game back.

Los Angeles is the better all-around team, owns the healthier roster, and is coming off a bye. I'm backing the reverse line movement and laying the small number with Los Angeles in my Rams versus Packers picks.

Under 47.5 (-110)

One of the most important factors in Over/Unders is pace of play. Green Bay is annually one of the slowest-paced teams, as Rodgers enjoys running the clock down and examining the defense for as long as possible. Green Bay ranks dead last in the NFL in seconds per play, with the Rams ranking first overall in neutral game script pace. This game is a clear contrast in styles.

The key to handicapping this game total is projecting how the game will evolve. When leading by seven or more points, the Rams are actually the 13th-slowest team in the league. Los Angeles will slow down if it has the lead. Surprisingly, the Packers are still the slowest team in the league when trailing by seven or more points. If the Rams score early, this game could fall very much Under the total.

The Packers are 8-3 to the Under, including 3-1 at home. Under Matt LaFleur with Rodgers at quarterback, Green Bay is 7-3 to the Under in home games during the months of November and December.

I'm taking the Under 45.5 total in my Rams versus Packers picks, and wouldn't be surprised if the public bet this up to 46 on Sunday. This is a close game between two teams with Super Bowl aspirations. I think the defenses will play a major role on Sunday.

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Rams-Packers picks made 11/26/2021 at 12:42 a.m. ET