NFL Player Props Week 11: Predictions, Picks for Sunday
Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker is looking to follow up another winning week with his top NFL player props for Week 11. He searches for the best NFL odds from our top NFL prop betting sites when recommending his NFL picks.
It was another solid week for our NFL player props. We hit three of four for a profit of 1.45 units.
After the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins were all on a bye in Week 10, there's plenty of star power returning to action. All three teams are among the favorites in the Super Bowl odds, and their respective quarterbacks are also all atop the NFL MVP odds lists across our best sports betting sites.
To accompany our NFL Week 11 predictions and NFL best bets, here are our best NFL player props for Week 11 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 11
- Amari Cooper Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- George Pickens Over 34.5 receiving yards (-117 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐
- Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tyler Boyd Over 43.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐ ❌
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NFL player props for Week 11: Sunday
Amari Cooper Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Cooper is a target hog in the Cleveland Browns vertical attack with an average of 8 per game, and I believe this low receiving-yards total is an overreaction to the switch to Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at quarterback against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
Thompson-Robinson didn’t have the benefit of first-team practice reps before his Week 4 debut against the Baltimore Ravens, and it showed. The rookie QB out of UCLA will have that luxury this time around, and I’m expecting him to have a better showing.
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I have Cooper projected for 53.6 receiving yards and would price this Over at -139. The difference in my numbers and the -110 bet365 odds is a positive expected value of 11%.
George Pickens Over 34.5 receiving yards (-117 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐
It’s been a quiet three-game stretch for Pickens. He’s caught six of 14 targets for just 66 yards, and it’s been fellow wide receiver Diontae Johnson (thumb) making more noise with 192 receiving yards and 16 receptions on 27 targets.
Johnson missed Wednesday’s practice with a thumb injury, and while he could still play Sunday, I'm anticipating Pickens being more involved in the passing attack against the Brownies. It’s been a topic of discussion within the organization over the past week, and this is the lowest Pickens’ receiving-yards total has been this season.
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I have Pickens projected for 46.9 receiving yards, so I’d price this Over at -141. This is another prop that is seeing line movement to the Over, but my numbers still present a target-worthy positive expected value of 9%. The edge will obviously shorten as the vig and/or total increase.
Jerick McKinnon Over 11.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
With McKinnon trading at a 16.5 receiving yards total via the rest of our NFL prop betting sites, there’s a sizable edge to backing the Kansas City Chiefs running back to go Over 11.5 yards through FanDuel.
Additionally, I respect the Pinnacle NFL trading team as an industry leader in pricing player props, and they’re also listing McKinnon at 16.5.
I have McKinnon projected for 17.7 receiving yards against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football and would price this Over at -156. The difference in my numbers and the -114 FanDuel price checks out at a positive expected value of 14%.
McKinnon has a consistent role in the KC offense, and he’s a proven pass-catcher who’s topped this total in four of the past five games and six of nine for the season.
For more on this matchup, read Phil Wood's Eagles vs. Chiefs prediction for MNF.
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NFL player props for Week 11: Thursday Night Football
Tyler Boyd Over 43.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐ ❌
There’s been line movement to the Over for Boyd’s receiving yards, with the total as low as 41.5 on Tuesday. While there’s obviously less value in the 43.5 number, I still see a short edge based on my projections.
I have Boyd projected for 48.6 receiving yards against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, so I’d price this prop at -120 for a positive expected value of 3%.
The Cincinnati Bengals have already ruled out wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring), and Boyd has been given 17 targets across the two games Higgins has missed in 2023. Boyd also garnered 17 targets when Higgins missed consecutive games in 2021.
There’s no sugarcoating the tough matchup, with the Baltimore defense allowing a league-low 5.98 yards per target to wideouts and ranking second in pass defense DVOA. Still, this isn’t a skyscraper total to climb, and I expect Boyd to get the target volume to go Over the number.
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