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NFL best bets
NFL best bets

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy headlines one of our NFL player props and best bets for Week 11 based on the NFL odds.

The parity across the NFL was on full display in Week 10, with six games finishing on a field-goal attempt and all three prime-time matchups being decided by a combined nine points. 

However, with five teams favored by nine or more points in the NFL Week 11 odds, it could be a different story this week.

Check out our NFL Week 11 predictions and Week 11 best bets, along with our Week 11 NFL props, and don't miss Neil Parker's NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 11

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Week 11 NFL schedule and odds

Odds via Caesars as of Thursday at 5:10 p.m. ET

NFL player props

Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It is likely not a coincidence that the San Francisco 49ers snapped a three-game losing skid once wide receiver Deebo Samuel was back on the field and looking healthy. When Samuel has been on the field in quarterback Brock Purdy's career, Purdy has completed 71% of his passes, posted a 12-1 TD-INT ratio, and has a Total QBR of 77. With Samuel off the field, Purdy's numbers drop to a 65% completion percentage, a 16-8 TD-INT ratio, and a 68 Total QBR. 

Purdy had multiple passing touchdowns in each of his first seven starts last year (including playoffs) and started this season with two or more touchdown passes in three of the first five games. Thus, we expect him to reach that plateau again, with the skill position players around him being the healthiest they have been in a while. 

We are getting a great price at FanDuel, as the price tag is as high as -166 at Caesars for Purdy to throw two-plus touchdowns.

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Tony Pollard Over 20.5 receiving yards (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has absolutely shredded man coverage this year, ranking first in passing yards, touchdowns, passer rating, CPOE, and success rate, per The Playbook. However, the Carolina Panthers are likely aware of those splits and have adapted accordingly in other scenarios, like in Week 8 against the Houston Texans when they used man coverage just 3.6% of the time (and held NFL MVP contender C.J. Stroud to a season-low 140 passing yards in the process). That was the fourth-lowest rate of man coverage for any defense in any game in 2023, per CBS Fantasy's Jacob Gibbs

Carolina used zone coverage at the second-highest rate (84%) through Week 9, so we expect a lot of check-downs and underneath routes from Dallas offensively, with Pollard being the benefactor. Pollard has averaged 21.1 receiving yards per game despite totaling just 14 receiving yards in the last three games combined. This is the week we expect him to bounce back, even if the Panthers face the third-fewest pass attempts per game.

While all of our NFL prop betting sites have the same O/U of 20.5 yards, DraftKings is the only one offering plus-money odds for Pollard to exceed his projected total.

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Javonte Williams Over 67.5 rushing yards vs. Vikings (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Denver Broncos have found a formula aside from their vastly improved defensive play that spurred a three-game winning streak. It started with giving running back Javonte Williams the ball.

Williams' three highest rushing attempt totals have come over the last three games, and he has responded with 79-plus rushing yards in each outing. He is the main reason Denver has had 48.7% of its yards gained via the ground game over the last five games, the highest rate in the NFL, per Sharp Football Analysis.

We expect Denver to commit to the run even more on what should be a cold and possibly wet Sunday night at home. In addition, the Minnesota Vikings blitz on nearly half of the opponents' dropbacks (48.6%), and Broncos QB Russell Wilson ranks 28th in the league in passer rating (71.9) and yards per attempt (6.2) against the blitz, per Sharp Football Analysis. Thus, staying ahead of the chains with the running game neutralizes those deficiencies. 

Caesars has the highest juice (-117) to back this Over, but given how well Williams has performed lately, we would not put anyone off his +135 odds to go over his alternate rushing yards total of 80-plus at DraftKings.

For more on this matchup, see my Vikings vs. Broncos predictions.

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NFL game picks

Jets-Bills Under 40 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Buffalo Bills are going through mid-season turmoil, culminating in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey's firing last week. It is unclear what new offensive coordinator Joe Brady will do to provide a jolt to this offense, but the fact is that the New York Jets have the Bills' offense and Josh Allen well figured out.

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Allen's 63.7 rating is his lowest against any opponent he has faced multiple times, and he is in a rut, averaging fewer than seven air yards per attempt in four of his previous five games. New York has arguably the best cover cornerback in the sport in Sauce Gardner to shadow Stefon Diggs, and we have seen time and again how Buffalo's offense struggles when Diggs is neutralized. 

Diggs' ADOT is six yards downfield over the last month. That is a huge reason why Buffalo has gone 2-4 over the previous six games while averaging 20.5 points per game and committing an NFL-high 13 turnovers in that span, compared to a 3-1 record, 34.8 points per game and five turnovers through the first four games. We are not worried about New York's ability to score points even though Buffalo ranks 30th in defensive EPA since Week 5, as the Bills have the worst third-down conversion percentage rate in the league (25%), and it has not scored a touchdown in 35 consecutive drives.

BetMGM and DraftKings have already lowered their totals to 39.5, so we are taking advantage of the best number at Caesars and bet365.

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NFL best bets made 11/16/2023 at 4:11 p.m. ET.

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