Jaguars vs. Colts Week 10 Picks: Jacksonville To Keep It Close Again

The Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off the upset of the NFL season in Week 9 versus the Buffalo Bills. Can Urban Meyer’s team shock the world once again Sunday as a double-digit underdog? Check out our Jaguars and Colts picks to find out who will come out on top.

I think we can conclude that the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) will not pick first overall in the NFL Draft for the second year in a row in 2022. While the Jaguars were wretched last year and ended it on a franchise-record 15-game losing streak, they look much-improved over the past three games under Urban Meyer and already have doubled their 2020 win total.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-5) are second in the AFC South and most likely will not win the division because first-place Tennessee swept the season series. Thus, it’s wild card or bust for Indy to return to the playoffs. As things stand entering Week 10, this matchup is essentially a must-win game for the Colts with incredibly tough games up next at Buffalo and vs. Tampa Bay.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Jaguars and Colts (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jaguars vs. Colts Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 13, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, INWeather: Indoors

Jaguars vs. Colts Odds Analysis

It’s very important to shop around at SBR’s top sportsbooks for this game depending on your lean. Some have the spread sitting right on the possible push number of 10 and some have it at 10.5, which is where it largely opened. About 60 percent of the spread lean is on the Colts. This would be the second straight game with a double-digit spread in this series. Prior to that, there hadn’t been one since December 2017. The home team is 5-1-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings.

The total has fallen from an open of 48 to 47.5 with obviously no weather concerns in the dome. About 55 percent of action as of this writing is on the Under.

Jaguars vs. Colts Picks

Jaguars +10.5 (-110) ??Over 47.5 points (-110) ??

SEE ALSO: 3 NFL Betting Trends to Monitor in Week 10

Jaguars vs. Colts Betting Predictions

Jacksonville +10.5 (-110)

I am very torn on this spread but more often than not I will take at least 10.5 points on any NFL underdog. When these teams closed last season in Indianapolis, the Colts were 15.5-point favorites and failed to cover in a 28-14 victory. Jonathan Taylor was unstoppable with a franchise-record 253 yards rushing on 30 carries with two touchdowns.

If Jacksonville doesn’t slow Taylor down Sunday, this will get out of hand quickly. The former Wisconsin star is second in the NFL with 821 rushing yards but the betting favorite to win the rushing title because No. 1 Derrick Henry (937 yards) is likely done for the season.

Taylor comes off a 172-yard, two-TD effort vs. the New York Jets in a 45-30 win on Thursday in Week 9 and had a 78-yard TD run — he now has the two longest runs in the league this year (83 vs. Houston on Oct. 17). When Taylor rushes for 100 yards this year, the Colts are 4-0 and they won each by at least 10 points.

Jacksonville will have rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the lineup. The 2021 number one overall pick suffered an ankle sprain in last Sunday’s crazy 9-6 upset of Buffalo but it was a low-ankle sprain instead of a high-ankle version. Those are vastly different injuries. It could affect Lawrence’s running ability Sunday, though.

The Jaguars are 10-1-1 ATS in the past 12 in this series. I can’t explain that. In the past six when Jacksonville is at least a 4-point dog, they are 6-0 ATS. That's why we're backing Jacksonville in our Week 10 Jaguars and Colts picks.

Over 47.5 Points (-110)

I’m throwing out Jacksonville allowing just six points last week to the Bills, who entered leading the NFL in scoring. The six points allowed were the fewest by the team since shutting out the Colts 6-0 in 2018. The Jags had three takeaways after only two in the first seven games combined. It was simply a case of Buffalo looking past them.

Indy put up 45 points on the Jets in Week 9 and since Week 4 leads the NFL in scoring with 31.5 points per game. The Colts have scored at least 30 in four straight games, their longest streak since 2010 with Peyton Manning as a starter. Carson Wentz has joined Manning, Andrew Luck, and Johnny Unitas as the only QBs in franchise history with six straight games of at least two TD passes. The Over is 5-1 in the Colts’ past six games and those games are averaging 53.7 total points.

Jacksonville’s offense should be better with the return of top running back James Robinson, who missed Week 9 with a heel injury. Carlos Hyde is a solid backup but not the all-around threat Robinson is. He leads the Jaguars with 482 yards rushing and is tied for third on the team with 18 receptions. Left tackle Cam Robinson suffered a back injury during pregame warmups vs. Buffalo that held him out for the game, but he’s expected back as well.

The Colts defense tends to let up at times — see the Jets scoring 20 points in the final 18 minutes or so of game time last week. New York, an awful offensive team on its third-string QB, had 486 total yards. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville defense is allowing an average of 30.7 points in three true road games this year. The Over is 8-3 in the Jags’ past 11 vs. the AFC South.

SEE ALSO: Browns vs. Patriots Week 10 Picks

Picks made on 11/10/2021 at 3:11 p.m. ET