Chargers vs. Broncos Week 12 Picks: LA to Take Care of Business In Denver

Both Los Angeles and Denver need a win to keep pace in a highly competitive AFC West division. We'll break down who has the edge with our Chargers and Broncos picks.

The Los Angeles Chargers are still in the AFC Playoff hunt, but the division is heating up with the Kansas City Chiefs on the rise again. The Chargers (5-4 against the spread) have an elite offensive trio, but they’ll be facing a division rival this week.

The Denver Broncos have one of the best receiving corps in the country. Denver (5-5 ATS) traded away Von Miller, but they still have a stout defense with an elite secondary. They have concerns at quarterback, but they still have a solid roster filled with talent.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Chargers and the Broncos (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chargers vs. Broncos Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:05 p.m ETTV: CBSLocation: Empower Stadium at Mile High, Denver, COWeather: 64 degrees, no rain

Chargers vs. Broncos Odds Analysis

The Chargers opened as a 3-point favorite, but the value was greater on the Broncos side of the bet. Some dipped the spread down to 2.5, but others remained at a field goal. However, FanDuel is at 2.5, but the odds are better on the Denver side of the spread.

The Over/Under is at 47.5. That is where it opened, and FanDuel has remained steady. However, other sportsbooks have ticked it up to 48 without changing the value of either side of the bet.

Chargers vs. Broncos Picks

Chargers -2.5 (-118) ???Over 47.5 (-112) ??

SEE ALSO: Top 3 Underdog Picks of NFL Week 12

Chargers vs. Broncos Predictions

Chargers -2.5 (-118)

It feels wrong to bet on the road team without the value being at -110, but I can’t get behind Denver winning this game. The offense has a low ceiling, and the Chargers have a great defensive front that will stop the run.

Justin Herbert is coming off of a great game, throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns. If the Chargers commit to using his strengths, they will win this game. He can leave the pocket and use his arm to make plays, and he has two great receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen to throw to.

Austin Ekeler had an elite performance last week as well, scoring 4 TDs. It’s unlikely that he will flood the stat sheet again, but he does have great vision and is running behind an improving offensive line.

The Broncos are playing at home, and they have a solid secondary that allows just 220.8 yards per game that can slow down the Chargers. However, they can’t play complementary football on offense. They have too many questions at quarterback for me to trust them.

It’s not insane to see an upset in a divisional game, but I like the road team to win by at least a field goal.

Over 47.5 (-112)

47.5 is a low O/U for most teams. The reason I’m picking the Over is because of the potential for the Chargers offense to explode. They have what it takes to score on any drive — as evidenced by their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers — and they play efficiently to get points on the board. They trust data to decide when to go for it, and this helps them get more opportunities to hit the Over.

It’s hard to see both offenses sputtering in this game. The weather is favorable in Denver, and there are too many elite-skill players on both teams. The Chargers could easily put up 31 by themselves, and the Broncos can at least script a few scoring drives to keep this one interesting. In the end, the Chargers should win while the Over hits.

Picks made on 11/25/2021 at 10:16 a.m. ET

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