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Buccaneers vs. Colts Week 12 Picks: Expect a Shootout in Indy

Buccaneers vs. Colts Week 12 Picks: Expect a Shootout in Indy
Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball during the fourth quarter in the game against the Buffalo Bills. Photo by: Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images via AFP.

The matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts is one of five on the NFL’s Week 12 slate that features two playoff teams from a year ago. We break it down with our Buccaneers-Colts picks.

The Buccaneers ended a two-game losing skid with their 30-10 win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. While the Bucs improved their home record to 5-0, they are just 2-3 on the road this season and failed to cover the spread in all five of their road games. 

The Colts have won five of six games after a 1-4 start. In their six home games, the Colts are 3-3 straight up and against the spread. They covered the spread in seven of their 11 games overall. 

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Buccaneers and Colts (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Buccaneers vs. Colts Week 12 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Weather: Indoors

Buccaneers vs. Colts Odds Analysis

Tampa Bay has been favored in every game this year, but its 3-point spread is its lowest since Week 3 when the Bucs lost outright as 1-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Rams. Most sportsbooks are in unison with the 3-point spread, after it opened at 2.5.

The Under cashed in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games, while the Over is 4-1 in Indianapolis’ last five. The total has fluctuated between 51 and 52 points at most sportsbooks thus far.

Buccaneers vs. Colts Picks

Colts +3 (-110) ★
Over 53 (-110) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Early NFL Week 12 Parlay Picks

Buccaneers vs. Colts Predictions

Colts +3 (-110)

Grabbing the points with the Colts is a one-star play since it is a matter of time before the Buccaneers figure out their road struggles. However, Indianapolis is playing its best football of the season, in large part because of the legs of RB Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor became the 18th player in NFL history to score five touchdowns in a game last week against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills entered the game having allowed just four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, which was tied for the fourth-fewest. However, Taylor torched the Bills for 185 rushing yards and 204 scrimmage yards. He did it against a defense that had ranked third in the league in rush defense entering the week. 

Many will point to Tampa Bay’s league-best rush defense (78.4 yards per game allowed) as to why the Buccaneers will cover the spread; however, the Colts’ rushing attack looks unstoppable at the moment.

Over 53 (-110)

The Colts have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six games, and an offense cannot be that successful solely with a dominant rushing attack. QB Carson Wentz has the eighth-highest QBR since Week 4, and his six games with at least two passing touchdowns and no interceptions entering last week was tied for the most in the league.

Tampa Bay’s offense averaged just 23 points per game in back-to-back losses to the New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team. However, the Bucs offense reached a different level last week, in large part because of TE Rob Gronkowski’s presence.

Gronkowski is QB Tom Brady’s safety blanket, and his presence in the middle of the field opens up more opportunities for WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside. Gronk was on the field for 46 plays last week, and Tampa Bay averaged 6.2 yards per play and 7.7 yards per pass attempt in that span. Conversely, the team averaged 4.0 yards per play and just 5.1 yards per pass attempt in the 31 plays that he was on the sideline.

Colts head coach Frank Reich tends to call a more aggressive game plan against good teams, and the Over/Under trends support that. The Over is 11-1 in Indianapolis’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. We should be in for another shootout this week.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Buccaneers-Colts picks made on 11/23/2021 at 12 p.m. ET.