Daily MLB Picks: Best Bets Today

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Daily MLB Picks: Best Bets Today

The Brewers have done well against sub-par lefties this season. Can they smack around the Chicago Cubs and Justin Steele in the second game of the series? Let’s see their MLB odds.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Saturday, September 18, 2021 – 7:15 PM EST at American Family Field

Probable Pitchers

  • Cubs: Justin Steele (3-3, 4.17 ERA)
  • Brewers: Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.25 ERA)

You guys know I’m an over backer. And you also know there’s no chance I’m betting against Corbin Burnes. So here's your hint.

We’re fading Justin Steele. Steele has a 4.17 ERA for the Cubs this season and while he’s shown flashes of being good, today, it looks like he’ll struggle. Steele has allowed seven runs in his last 10 innings behind 14 hits and four walks. He’s got eight strikeouts in those 10 innings, so it’s not like he's a big strikeout pitcher.

Justin Steele #35 of the Chicago Cubs on August 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images/AFP

In the last 30 days, Steele has an xFIP of 4.72 with a strikeout rate of just 18.8 percent while walking 10.6 percent. He’s also allowed a BABIP of .352 and that’s due to low ground balls, high line drives and plenty of hard contact allowed, reaching over 52 percent.

Steele has allowed righties to have a wOBA of .367 in his last 30 days and 83 plate appearances against them. The left-handed thrower continues to face right-handed heavy lineups and has faced 82 righties and just two lefties in his last 84 plate appearances. That’s crazy stuff. The numbers I talked about above are basically his numbers against righties in the last 30 days.

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What makes the Brewers special is that they can platoon different guys and send out a ton of right-handed bats to counter Steele. Christian Yelich and Kolten Wong will be the only two lefties in the lineup. They’ll also have Burnes hitting but other than that it’ll be all right-handed bats.

Righties like Lorenzo Cain, Manny Pina and Pablo Reyes along with Eduardo Escobar, Avisail Garcia and Luis Urias all have insane power against lefties.

The bottom of the order has had short sample sizes but plenty of success against lefties. Now they’re facing a lower-tier lefty in comparison.

Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers. Photo by John FISHER / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP

Prediction

The Brewers' offense looks extremely good against lefties. They can stack a bunch of righties, even at the bottom of the order, to have success against Steele. While Steele has had some success this season, in his last two starts it hasn’t been great. He can’t get big strikeouts and he’s walking plenty of batters along with an xFIP that’s nearing five in the last 30 days.

Coaches and managers must know something. There’s a reason why he’s only facing righties. He likely struggles against righties the most and with the Brewers lineup including six righties that can all do damage to lefties, it’s a no-brainer here.

Let’s take the Brewers Over 2.5 in the first five on the team total for our MLB picks. They’ll score three or more in the first five and we’ll cash this ticket against Steele and the Cubs.

MLB Pick: Brewers Over 2.5 F5 TT (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Brewers Over 2.5 F5 TT(-115)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.