MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Tuesday, Aug. 18)
My MLB home run picks had a profitable night Monday, and we're looking to keep that momentum rolling. My home run predictions today feature Mike Trout, Andy Pages, and Austin Riley, as all three have pitching matchups they should be able to take advantage of on a loaded Tuesday slate.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 18
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout to homer (+310 via FanDuel) | 0.65u β 2u | Trout has a .540 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Javier throws 64.8% of the time vs. RHH. |
| Andy Pages to homer (+440 via FanDuel) | 0.45u β 2u | Feltner throws 48.3% breaking balls and 46.4% fastballs vs. RHH, and those are Pages' 2 best pitches to hit. |
| Austin Riley to homer (+465 via DraftKings) | 0.43u β 2u | Riley's highest xSLG is vs. fastballs, which Matthews throws 55.8% of the time vs. RHH. |
Total wagered: 1.53 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Mike Trout (+310)
Trout has slowed down a bit over the past week - he hasn't hit a home run in six straight games - but he's in a good spot to end that drought today.
The Angels' star outfielder has a .540 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, and today, he faces Cristian Javier, who throws fastballs 64.8% of the time to right-handed hitters.
Trout ranks in the 96th percentile in barrel rate, so getting him at these odds against Javier is a gift. Trout to homer (+310) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 SBR Edge: Houston, You Have a Problem
Trout has homered in two of his four games at Daikin Park this season.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Andy Pages (+440)
We cashed on Shohei Ohtani to homer Monday in Colorado, and we're returning to Coors Field, but this time with Pages.
The Dodgers outfielder is going against Ryan Feltner today, who throws 48.3% breaking balls and 46.4% fastballs to right-handed hitters. Luckily for Pages, those are his two best pitches to hit, as he's slugging .528 and .433 against them, respectively.
If he can homer twice against the Brewers (second-lowest team ERA in MLB) in the Dodgers' last series, it's reasonable to assume he'll go yard against the Rockies (highest team ERA in MLB). Pages to homer (+440) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Austin Riley (+465)
After a slow start this year - he slashed just .184/.270/.330 in April - Riley is starting to turn his season around. He's slashing .314/.333/.588 in August and has homered in three of his last 13 games.
Today, he faces Zebby Matthews, who throws fastballs 55.8% of the time to right-handed hitters. Fastballs are Riley's best pitch to hit (.426 expected slugging percentage on the season), and Matthews ranks in the ninth percentile with a -8 fastball run value.
Riley to homer (+465) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB props today
Want more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mike Trout to homer
- Andy Pages to homer
- Austin Riley to homer
Best odds: +12111 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-38-4 | -0.68 units β | -1.3% β |
| Player props | 8-28-3 | -1.12 units β | -4.3% β |
| Game props | 6-4 | +0.63 units β | 3.3% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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