MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Monday, Aug. 17
Despite consistently beating the closing line, my MLB home run picks have gone a little cold lately, going just 1-3 last time out. My home run predictions today look to bounce back with Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Michael Conforto, who all have favorable pitching matchups on Monday's 11-game slate.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 17
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+195 via DraftKings) | 1.03u β 2u | Ohtani has a .672 xSLG vs. fastballs, Sugano's go-to pitch vs. LHH. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.38u β 2u | McLean throws 67.8% fastballs to RHH, and Tatis has a .472 xSLG vs. fastballs. |
| Michael Conforto to homer (+537 via DraftKings) | 0.37u β 2u | Conforto is slugging .594 vs. fastballs, which Castillo throws 56.3% of the time to LHH. |
Total wagered: 1.78 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+195)
Ohtani didn't hit any home runs in the Dodgers' four-game series against the Brewers - who have the lowest team ERA in the NL - but now he gets to face the Rockies in Colorado.
The Rockies have the highest ERA in MLB (5.47), and Colorado starter Tomoyuki Sugano is a good matchup for Ohtani to end his homerless streak. Ohtani has a .672 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, which is Sugano's go-to pitch against left-handed hitters (48.6% usage).
Ohtani to homer (+195) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Sugano's Rocky Start vs. Ohtani
Ohtani is 5-for-8 with three home runs and a double in his career against Sugano.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+520)
After a slow start to the season - he didn't hit his first home run until May 30 - Tatis is back to his old self and has homered in five of his last 11 games.
Today, he faces Mets starter Nolan McLean, who throws 67.8% fastballs to right-handed hitters. Luckily for Tatis, fastballs have been his best pitch to hit, with a .472 expected slugging percentage.
The Padres outfielder has two hits against McLean in just three career at-bats, but no homers (yet). Tatis to homer (+520) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Michael Conforto (+537)
Hear me out. Not only did Conforto homer on a fastball this weekend, but he gets to face White Sox starter Luis Castillo today, who throws fastballs 56.3% of the time to left-handed hitters.
Conforto is slugging .594 against fastballs and has homered once against Castillo in 11 career at-bats. While Castillo is coming off seven shutout innings against the Reds, he has struggled overall since early July, allowing multiple home runs in three of his last five starts.
Conforto to homer (+537) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB props today
Want more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today or Mike Spector's Cardinals vs. Reds prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer
- Michael Conforto to homer
Best odds: +10776 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-36-4 | -1.92 units β | -3.9% β |
| Player props | 7-26-3 | -2.36 units β | -9.8% β |
| Game props | 6-4 | +0.63 units β | 3.3% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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