Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, Aug. 17
Quinn Mathews makes just his second career MLB start for the St. Louis Cardinals, who play the first game of a doubleheader in what is a five-game series against the Cincinnati Reds this afternoon. My Cardinals vs. Reds prediction expects Mathews and a red-hot offense to lead St. Louis to a victory in the first leg. The Cardinals will have to work around a big day at the plate from Sal Stewart, while Ivan Herrera to homer rounds out my MLB picks.
As of this writing, Cincinnati hasn’t announced its starting pitching plans, but speculation is that it will be a bullpen game that involves Chase Petty. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Cardinals are favored at some sportsbooks and underdogs at others.
⚾ Cardinals vs. Reds picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinals ML (+105 via Caesars) | 1u → 1.05u | Cincinnati is an NL-Central worst 11 games under .500 against teams with a winning record |
| Sal Stewart Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via BetMGM) | 1u → 1.1u | Stewart looks to start a new hitting streak after having a seven-game streak snapped |
| Ivan Herrera to hit a home run (+540 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.35u | Herrera has made one of the biggest jumps in hard-hit rate of all MLB batters recently |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.5 units
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🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Reds?
Cincinnati is one of five NL teams that is at least 11 games under .500 against teams with a winning record, and I like the momentum St. Louis has after taking a road series against the Cubs over the weekend.
Score prediction: Cardinals 5, Reds 4
💰 Cardinals vs. Reds prediction & best bet
Cardinals ML (+105)
St. Louis enters having won the last two games against the Cubs, after Chicago had won six of seven home games. A red-hot offense that averaged 9.5 runs per game while collectively batting .286 with a 1.043 OPS in the two wins was the catalyst.
Cincinnati is a middle-of-the-road offense with a 100 wRC+ against southpaws. It is also 11-24 against divisional opponents, as only the Nationals have a worse winning percentage in the NL against teams from their own division.
Mathews should deal, as he’s the second minor-leaguer since 2011 to record 200 strikeouts in a season.
💡 SBR Edge: The non-competitive Reds?
Cincinnati has already lost 29 games by five-plus runs, after losing 20 such games last season.
🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Reds player prop bet
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Sal Stewart had a seven-game hit streak snapped in yesterday’s series finale against the Marlins. Prior to that, he hit safely in 20 of the previous 25 games.
Stewart’s plus-money odds to go Over this projected total are a great value considering he has three multi-hit games in the last five. That helps offset the fact that just one of his previous 10 hits have gone for extra bases.
Mathews allowed six hits over five innings against the Blue Jays in his MLB debut, and would seemingly have the edge on the Reds lineup the first time through the order given their unfamiliarity with his arsenal. But while Cincinnati has tagged opposing southpaws for just 1.3 earned runs per game in the last nine starts, I’m banking on Stewart and his .500 slugging percentage (and solid .887 OPS) against left-handed pitchers to result in either one extra-base hit or a multi-hit game.
💣 Cardinals vs. Reds home run prediction
Ivan Herrera to hit a home run (+540)
Ivan Herrera has a respectable 13 home runs this season despite hitting one in his last 19 games. However, Herrera has 15 hits in his last 11 games overall, and his massive increase in hard-hit rate has me liking his chances at these odds to go yard in the first game of the doubleheader.
Over the last 14 days, Herrera has the second-highest increase of any MLB batter in hard-hit rate, trailing only Wilyer Abreu from the Red Sox. He has seen a 22.2% increase from 39.3% to 61.5% in that span, while the next closest batter’s increase was 17%.
I’m also looking at stadium factors, as Great American Ball Park ranks ninth out of 30 for home runs to right-handed batters.
🚀 Cardinals vs. Reds same-game parlay
Even though Sal Stewart is the one whose 91 RBIs are tied for first in the league, backing him to drive in a run would contradict somewhat my Cardinals moneyline play. Therefore, I’m going the safer route and expecting Stewart to begin another hitting streak after having his seven-game streak snapped.
It’s Herrera that I look to drive in a run since that pairs more nicely for SGP purposes with St. Louis winning, and the designated hitter has an RBI in six of the last 10 games.
💵 Cardinals vs. Reds SGP picks
- Sal Stewart to record 1+ hits
- Cardinals ML
- Ivan Herrera to record 1+ RBI
Best odds: +660 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.66u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
| Overall | 229-366-1 | +48.98 units ✅ | +13.2% ✅ |
| Game picks | 89-68-1 | +13.91 units ✅ | +7.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 140-298 | +35.07 units ✅ | +16.4% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Reds: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I’m excited by the fact that my three wagers for this game offer plus-money returns, especially since we’re getting great value on most of them. St. Louis is as high as a -120 moneyline favorite (54.55% implied odds) at the high end of the market, while the Over on Stewart’s 1.5 total bases is juiced as high as -125 at FanDuel.
Though my analysis only covers the first leg of this doubleheader, I will also be looking to see how this game’s results impact the odds for tonight’s game. If the price is right, I’ve often blindly backed the losing team from the first leg to win the second matchup, knowing how difficult it is to sweep a doubleheader. If Cincinnati goes off as a favorite in that game, that brings into play the trend that it has won five straight as a home favorite.
📊 Live Cardinals vs. Reds odds
The lines for this game are all over the place, with the Cardinals ranging from +110 moneyline underdogs to -118 favorites at BetMGM. Some sites have Andre Pallante listed as St. Louis’ starting pitcher even though it has been confirmed that Quinn Mathews is getting the ball, so it is fair to wonder if the difference in prices are a result of misinformation.
The total is aligned at an O/U of 9.5 across the market. It would likely take more betting support than the current 65/35 split in favor of the Over to see the line tick up to 10. But at the very least, the lopsided splits could affect the juice that sportsbooks are offering, as the +100 odds to back the Over that BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings is offering may not last long.
📈 Cardinals vs. Reds betting trends
| Cardinals | Statistic | Reds |
| 63-61 | W-L record | 59-64 |
| 70-54 | Run line record | 63-60 |
| 50-68-6 | O/U record | 64-57-2 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4.04 | Team ERA | 4.51 |
| .240 | Team batting avg. | .226 |
| .698 | OPS | .700 |
🚑 Cardinals vs. Reds injuries
📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Reds
- Date: Monday, August 17
- First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Cardinals starter: Quinn Mathews (0-1, 3.60 ERA)
- Reds starter: Undecided
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