MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Aug. 19
My MLB home run picks missed the mark Tuesday - to put it nicely - despite getting closing-line value on three of the four. Luckily for us, we have another loaded slate today to bounce back. My home run predictions today feature Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Conine, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who have all been raking lately.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 19
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+215 via FanDuel) | 0.93u β 2u | Ohtani has a .683 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Freeland throws 61.8% of the time to LHH. |
| Griffin Conine to homer (+360 via FanDuel) | 0.56u β 2u | Fastballs are Nola's most-used pitch vs. LHH, and Conine has a .702 xSLG vs. fastballs. |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong to homer (+532 via DraftKings) | 0.38u β 2u | Urquidy throws primarily offspeed pitches and fastballs vs. LHH, and Crow-Armstrong is slugging .614 and .549 against them, respectively. |
Total wagered: 1.87 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+215)
I think it's safe to say Ohtani is back to hitting like his old self (at least at Coors Field).
He's homered three times over his last two games, both in Denver, and faces another favorable pitching matchup today. Kyle Freeland throws fastballs 61.8% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Ohtani has a .683 xSLG against fastballs.
Freeland has allowed four home runs across his two starts against L.A. this season, and if he allows another today, it'll likely be to Ohtani. FanDuel's +215 odds for Ohtani to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🏔️ SBR Edge: Freeland's Rocky Stats vs. Ohtani
Ohtani is 9-for-16 with three home runs in his career against Freeland, slashing .563/.611/1.188.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Griffin Conine (+360)
Conine has homered four times across his last nine games, and now he gets to face Aaron Nola, who ranks in the first percentile - yes, first - in fastball run value (-32).
What makes this pick even stronger is that fastballs are Nola's most-used pitch (46.2% usage) to left-handed hitters, and Conine has a .702 xSLG against fastballs, which is even higher than Ohtani's.
Nola has allowed at least one home run in seven straight home starts, so no one would be surprised if he did so again today. Conine to homer (+360) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+532)
Crow-Armstrong is the betting favorite in the NL MVP odds - and for good reason.
He's homered four times across his last three games and already has seven home runs in August (and we're not even two-thirds through the month).
Jose Urquidy will likely serve as the bulk reliever for the White Sox today, and he throws 41.7% offspeed pitches and 40.5% fastballs to left-handed hitters. Crow-Armstrong is slugging .614 and .549 against those pitches, respectively, and has six home runs across his last seven home games.
Crow-Armstrong to homer (+532) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into my best NRFI bets today and LJ Blut's Yankees vs. Orioles win probability.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Bolte | A's | 2+ bases | +165 |
| Tommy White | A's | 1+ strikeouts | -135 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | 1+ home runs | +175 |
| Cade Cavalli | Nationals | 6+ strikeouts | -165 |
| Brett Bateman | Blue Jays | 1+ home runs | +1050 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Griffin Conine to homer
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to homer
Best odds: +8092 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-44-4 | -5.92 units β | -10.3% β |
| Player props | 8-33-3 | -4.5 units β | -15.4% β |
| Game props | 6-4 | +0.63 units β | 3.3% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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