Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami Prediction: Wednesday's MLS Best Bets & Picks (Aug. 19)
My Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami prediction breaks down a highlight game from the Wednesday MLS slate, with Lionel Messi and Inter looking to get back on track after being trashed last weekend. Oddsmakers aren't so sure, as Philadelphia is lined as a short +140 betting favorite on the three-way line, with Inter getting a +162 number and the draw lined at +290.
Play from Subaru Park in Chester, Penn., gets started at 7:30 p.m. ET, airing on Apple TV.
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⚽ Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami moneyline | +162 via bet365 | 0.25u -> 0.41u |
| Philadelphia Over 14.5 shots | +100 via bet365 | 1u -> 1u |
| Milan Olaski Over 1.5 shots on target | -110 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.91u |
⚽ Who will win Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami?
Miami should get back on track here on Saturday, but it's not something I'm going to dive into with two feet because of some recent results. And that most recent result was a 4-1 loss on the road at Nashville on Saturday, a game where the Herons often looked like they were struggling to find consistency (although a failed penalty kick and a couple of shots that hit the woodwork also changed the final scoreline).
The loss of Micael can't be overstated, as the squad didn't look comfortable building from the back like normal. Mateo Silvetti (shoulder) and German Berterame (concussion) didn't even make the bench against Nashville as they navigate injuries. It's a pile of injuries for players getting regular minutes, so I'm not entirely confident Miami can get the job done on the road, playing a quarter unit at most.
Score prediction: Miami 3, Philadelphia 2
💵 My best bet: Philadelphia Over 14.5 shots (+100)
Philadelphia doesn't need to win or do anything special to hit this line; in fact, they don't even need to reach their season average for this one to cash. Miami's decent defense needs to be taken into account for sure; they only allow 12.84 shots/game, but I just broke down some of the injuries this squad is dealing with, and that changes everything.
The Union aren't a team that needs a lot of possession to pile up shots, as they often finish at below 50% and still put up over 16 per game - they get it done in transition. Philadelphia's goal profile isn't great, but they're overall attacking profile has been pretty decent and now gets a banged up Herons squad.
This matchup isn't screaming "Philadelphia can't get attempts," and when these teams last met, they indeed piled up 21. They can come well short and still reach this number on Wednesday.
🦶 Who will score in Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami?
Milan Iloski, F, Philadelphia (+120)
I don't often dabble in anytime goal scorer markets, but if I were, I'd target Iloski on Wednesday. The forward has been on an absolute tear for Philadelphia, scoring in four of his last five MLS games, including against Miami.
This is also a play on Iloski's general attacking profile. He's played 17.3 90s out of 19 starts (in 19 games), and is averaging 4.23 shots/90 and 1.56 SOT/90 - he doesn't find his way to the bench often, and when he's on, the offense flows through him.
With 10 goals already this season, including three against Miami when they first met, I'll roll the dice on Iloski to score again (although I prefer the 2+ SOT market).
Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami goal-scorer pick: Milan Iloski (+120)
🥅 Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami?
It would be much more shocking if both of these teams didn't score on Wednesday, for sure. Neither of these squads is particularly great at keeping a clean sheet, with Miami only pulling it off in 27% of their road games and Phili only in 33% of their home games.
And that 33% didn't come against teams with the attacking prowess of Miami. Even if there are some issues in the midfield and on the back end, there's still Messi and Suarez up front and a midfield with De Paul and Cassemiro.
But, the price here is out of whack for an actual wager. Just because something is likely doesn't mean it's necessary a good wager, and for me, this price is just that.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (-250 via bet365)
📊 Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami odds
📺 How to watch Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami
- Date: Wednesday, Aug. 19
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Subaru Park (Chester, Penn.)
- TV: Apple TV
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