White Sox vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Aug. 18)

The Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs win probability continues their Crosstown Classic at Wrigley Field, with Bryan Hudson facing Kevin Gausman in Tuesday night’s pitching matchup. Hudson enters with a 3-4 record and 3.14 ERA, while Gausman is 6-11 with a 4.53 ERA. Kalshi gives the Cubs a 61% win probability and the White Sox 39%, highlighting Chicago’s home-field advantage and pitching edge.

This matchup matters beyond bragging rights, as the White Sox are fighting for the AL Central while the Cubs remain firmly in the NL Central playoff race, making every game increasingly important.

🏆 Who will win White Sox vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability

The Cubs have climbed to a 61% win probability on Kalshi, while the White Sox sit at 39%, showing meaningful movement from the market’s 56%-44% opening split. Trading volume has added liquidity and helped push the Cubs higher as bettors respond to Chicago’s stronger overall record, home-field advantage, and recent momentum.

The current pricing also aligns closely with the expected pitching edge, with Kevin Gausman giving the Cubs a slight advantage over Bryan Hudson. While the matchup remains competitive, the market now gives Chicago more win expectancy than the opening price suggested, reflecting growing confidence in the Cubs.

My prediction: Cubs win (61%)). The Cubs win because their home-field advantage and stronger overall roster give them the edge in a closely contested matchup. Kevin Gausman’s experience on the mound should help Chicago limit the White Sox while the Cubs capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

💣 Who will hit a home run in White Sox vs. Cubs?

The home run market features several intriguing options, with Pete Crow-Armstrong emerging as one of the strongest candidates to go deep. Crow-Armstrong currently carries a 22% home run probability, giving him a sizable edge among the available options in this matchup.

Alex Bregman is another player worth monitoring, though his 14% probability places him behind Crow-Armstrong. With the game being played at Wrigley Field, wind and weather conditions could play a major role in determining how much power translates into home runs. Bettors should also consider lineup placement, recent form, and pitcher tendencies when evaluating this market.

My prediction: Pete Crow Armstrong (22%) to hit a home run. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a strong home run candidate tonight thanks to his power potential and ability to capitalize on favorable pitching matchups. His 22% home run probability leads the market, making him one of the best candidates to go deep in this matchup.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of White Sox vs. Cubs?

The YRFI/NRFI market is leaning slightly toward early offense, with YRFI carrying a 53% probability and NRFI sitting at 47%. That narrow split suggests bettors expect at least one run to cross the plate during the opening inning, though the market remains relatively balanced. Both offenses have opportunities to create pressure immediately, particularly if either lineup can take advantage of early baserunners and mistakes in the strike zone. The pitching matchup also adds intrigue, as both starters will need to work efficiently from the opening pitch. With only a three-point gap separating the outcomes, this market could remain volatile.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (53%). The YRFI is appealing because both lineups have enough offensive firepower to capitalize on early mistakes and put runners on base quickly. With YRFI carrying a 53% probability, the market slightly favors at least one run scoring in the first inning.

📊 White Sox vs. Cubs win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch White Sox vs. Cubs

• Date: Tuesday, August 18
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field
• TV: MLB.TV
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• White sox starter: Bryan Hudson 3-4 (3.14 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Kevin Gausman 6-11 (4.53 ERA)