Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: Tonight's MLB Odds & Best Bets (Tuesday, Aug. 18)
My Marlins vs. Phillies prediction breaks down tonight's matchup between opener Cade Gibson (Tyler Phillips will likely work in bulk relief) and Zack Wheeler. After losing the opener of this three-game set, the Marlins are in danger of dropping a series for the first time since Aug. 4-6 (at the Braves).
My MLB picks feature Marlins +1.5 (-118), Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105), and Bryce Harper Over 0.5 home runs (+470). First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV).
⚾ Marlins vs. Phillies picks & odds tonight
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Marlins +1.5 (-118 via DraftKings) | 2.36u → 2u | Wheeler has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his 5 starts since the All-Star break. |
| Over 8.5 (+100 via FanDuel) | 0.5u → 0.5u | The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. |
| Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105 via BetMGM) | 1.43u → 1.5u | Lopez has totaled 9 hits + RBIs in 16 career at-bats vs. Wheeler. |
| Bryce Harper Over 0.5 home runs (+470 via FanDuel) | 0.43u → 2u | Harper is slugging .519 vs. breaking balls, Phillips' favorite pitch to throw vs. LHH. |
Total wagered: 4.72 units | Max profit: 6 units
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🏆 Who will win Marlins vs. Phillies?
I like the Phillies to beat the Marlins by one run today, meaning there's value on Marlins +1.5 (-118). The Phillies are a -210 betting favorite at the time of publish, and while they will likely win at home with Wheeler on the mound, -210 is too expensive. That price carries an implied probability of 67.74%, and I would price the Phillies' fair (no-vig) odds closer to 65%.
Score prediction: Phillies 5, Marlins 4
💰 Marlins vs. Phillies prediction & best bet
Marlins +1.5 (-118)
While Wheeler opened with the fourth-shortest NL Cy Young odds, he's struggled since the All-Star break, and the market is underreacting.
He has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his five starts since the break, including five earned runs against the Marlins on July 27. While it's unlikely the Marlins score that many against him today, even if he allows three earned runs, it'll be tough for the Phillies to cover a -1.5 run line.
Marlins +1.5 (-118) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
🚨 SBR Edge: Phillies Struggle vs. Marlins
The Marlins have covered the +1.5 run line in each of the last five meetings between these teams, including four straight-up wins.
🔥 Best Marlins vs. Phillies player prop bet
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105)
Lopez has been a tough out for Wheeler. The Marlins shortstop has totaled nine hits + RBIs in 16 career at-bats against Wheeler, slashing .438/.500/.688.
He's had success against the Phillies recently, too. Lopez has recorded two or more hits + runs + RBIs in four of his last five meetings with Philadelphia, including totaling four in Monday's series opener and six in Wheeler's last start against the Marlins.
Lopez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
💵 More MLB props today
Want more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
💣 Marlins vs. Phillies home run prediction
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 home runs (+470)
Most of the bets I've placed on this game have been pro-Marlins, but Harper is actually in a good spot to homer today.
Phillips will be the Marlins' primary pitcher, and his go-to pitches against left-handed hitters are breaking balls (43.9% usage) and fastballs (32%).
Those are Harper's two best pitches to hit, as he's slugging .519 and .551 against them, respectively.
Kyle Schwarber is the most popular home run bet in this matchup (per BetMGMNews), but the public should be on Harper instead. Harper Over 0.5 home runs (+470) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
⚾️ More home run picks today
I feature Mike Trout, Austin Riley, and a Dodgers outfielder in my home run predictions today.
🎟️ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | Tigers | 1+ home runs | +800 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | 1+ home runs | +200 |
| Keider Montero | Tigers | Over 15.5 outs | -135 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | 1+ home runs | +200 |
| Jack Perkins | A's | 4+ strikeouts | -160 |
🚀 Marlins vs. Phillies same-game parlay
Parlaying these four bets at DraftKings pays +2200.
💵 Marlins vs. Phillies SGP picks
- Marlins +1.5
- Over 8.5
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
- Bryce Harper Over 0.5 home runs
Best odds: +2200 via DraftKings
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-38-4 | -0.68 units ❌ | -1.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 8-28-3 | -1.12 units ❌ | -4.3% ❌ |
| Game props | 6-4 | +0.63 units ✅ | 3.3% ✅ |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units ✅ | 1.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
📊 Live Marlins vs. Phillies odds
When analyzing line movement, we really only care about moves at sharp books (i.e., ones that don't limit winning bettors). The Phillies opened as a -240 betting favorite at Circa, and money has since come in on the Marlins, pushing the line down to Phillies -210.
The total opened at 8 (Over: -115 | Under: -105) at Circa, and there has been no movement overnight.
🤑 Marlins vs. Phillies betting splits
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Team / bet type | Odds | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | |||
| 🔵 Moneyline | +185 | 36% | 48% |
| 🔵 Run line | +1.5 (-120) | 16% | 11% |
| 🔵 Total | o8 (-120) | 72% | 92% |
| Phillies | |||
| 🔴 Moneyline | -225 | 64% | 52% |
| 🔴 Run line | -1.5 (+100) | 84% | 89% |
| 🔴 Total | u8 (+100) | 28% | 8% |
📈 Marlins vs. Phillies betting trends
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
| Marlins | Statistic | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| 64-62 | W-L record | 68-58 |
| 66-60 | Run line record | 49-77 |
| 61-62-3 | O/U record | 57-64-5 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 3.93 | Team ERA | 4.16 |
| .251 | Team batting avg. | .240 |
| .731 | OPS | .712 |
🚑 Marlins vs. Phillies injuries
📺 How to watch Marlins vs. Phillies
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 18
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
- Marlins opener: Cade Gibson (2-0, 5.61 ERA)
- Phillies starter: Zack Wheeler (10-4, 2.89 ERA)
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