Braves vs. Twins Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, Aug. 19

The recently recalled AJ Smith-Shawver takes the mound tonight for the Atlanta Braves, who is tasked with trying to help avoid a road series sweep against the Minnesota Twins. My Braves vs. Twins prediction backs the home underdogs given this tweak to the visitor’s rotation, with leadoff man Luke Keaschall leading the way offensively. Even though I expect Minnesota to win, I cannot pass up the opportunity to back Matt Olson to homer with the last of my MLB picks.

First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Braves are as high as -118 betting favorites. 

⚾ Braves vs. Twins picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Twins?

Atlanta has been far from dominant since an eight-game winning streak that ended on Aug. 6, and I expect a more desperate Minnesota team clawing for the last AL wild card spot will eke out a win while going for the sweep.

Score prediction: Twins 5, Braves 4

💰 Braves vs. Twins prediction & best bet

Twins ML (+103)

Atlanta has lost seven of nine since an eight-game winning streak. It has played to its competition of late, as six of its last 11 games have been decided by two or fewer runs. 

Minnesota did well to snap a three-game losing streak with Monday’s victory. While the win snapped an 11-game losing streak against Atlanta, I am not necessarily jumping back on the Braves bandwagon for this game. After all, they couldn’t beat Zebby Matthews yesterday, who had pitched to a 7.27 ERA in his previous seven starts, with a 1.70 WHIP over 34.2 innings.

🔥 Best Braves vs. Twins player prop bet

Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 runs (+155)

Luke Keaschall batted leadoff for the first time all season in Monday’s series opener, and promptly doubled in his first at-bat to ignite a four-run first inning. He finished 2-for-5 with a run scored, and should get more looks atop the Twins lineup, especially after going 4-for-5 in the one game he batted leadoff last September. Thus, Keaschall produced a 1.083 OPS with a .667 BABIP and three runs scored in two games as a leadoff man.

Entering yesterday, Keaschall had a .438 on-base percentage since July 1. He now has four multi-hit games in his last five, with three extra-base hits sprinkled in.

Keaschall has a great chance to find his way on base often against AJ Smith-Shawver, as the righty walked 21 batters across 44.1 innings prior to being diagnosed with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery.  

💣 Braves vs. Twins home run prediction

Matt Olson to hit a home run (+326)

Matt Olson entered yesterday leading all MLB hitters with 67 extra-base hits. By comparison, NL and AL MVP candidates Pete Crow-Armstrong (62) and Yordan Alvarez (61) were the only other players who totaled more than 59 extra-base hits in that span.

Olson has 36 home runs, and became the 14th active player with at least five seasons of 30-plus homers. Only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber have hit more home runs than him since 2017, and he was also the only player with double-digit homers since July 24 entering yesterday.

Taj Bradley has allowed multiple home runs twice in his last seven starts, and 14 of his 19 long balls allowed have been to left-handed batters. 

🚀 Braves vs. Twins same-game parlay

Even though Matt Olson leads the Majors in homers for nearly the last month, backing him to go yard as part of this same-game parlay would somewhat contradict my Twins moneyline play. Therefore, I’m going the conservative route with him just to produce a base hit for the fourth time in five games, while keeping my wager of Keaschall to score a to complement the first leg of the SGP. 

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Olson’s odds to belt his 37th home run were too good to pass up. But for those that are tailing my Twins moneyline wager, I wouldn’t put anyone off simply backing the Over 1.5 (the best price is +125 at bet365) on Olson’s total bases given that he leads the Majors in extra-base hits.

Minnesota clearly has the starting pitching edge in this afternoon's affair. But it is still a great price to back on the moneyline, even though I’m bucking the trend that it is tied for an AL-worst 11 games under .500 in interleague matchups.

📊 Live Braves vs. Twins odds

The lines for this game range from a virtual pick’em at FanDuel with each side having -104 moneyline odds to Atlanta as big as -118 betting favorites (54.13% implied odds) at BetMGM. The Braves are getting just 55% of the betting support thus far, so I wouldn’t expect the line to move drastically in their favor.

The total is aligned at an O/U of 8.5 across the market, and near dead-even betting splits of 54/46 in support of the Over are not likely to move it before first pitch. In fact, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t more action coming in on the Under because of recency bias, considering these teams have combined for six and five runs the last two days.

📈 Braves vs. Twins betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. Twins injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Twins

• Date: Wednesday, August 19
• First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Target Field (Minneapolis, Minn.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Braves starter: AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 4.15 ERA)
• Twins starter: Taj Bradley (9-5, 3.98)