Tigers vs. Pirates Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Aug. 17)
LHP Framber Valdez and RHP Carmen Mlodzinski square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Tigers vs. Pirates win probability.
The Tigers have a 50% win probability on prediction market apps, but based on how poorly the Pirates have played since the All-Star break, I'm surprised it's not higher. First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
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🏆 Who will win Tigers vs. Pirates? Live MLB win probability
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The Tigers have a 50% win probability, and more than $400,000 has already been traded in this market. Detroit originally opened with a 56% win probability Friday night, but money has come in on the Pirates as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Tigers are available at 51¢, with more than $200,000 in liquidity at that price.
The Tigers were swept in three games by the White Sox in Detroit. They lost 7-5 in the finale Sunday, despite having an 85.9% win probability, per ESPN Analytics, and leading 4-1 in the fourth inning. Designated hitter Colt Keith hit a solo shot in the third inning, his ninth home run of the season.
The Pirates won two of three games against the Red Sox in Pittsburgh, wrapping up the series with an 8-3 victory Sunday. They scored five runs in the third inning, capped by a sacrifice fly by catcher Henry Davis. Second baseman Brandon Lowe, designated hitter Bryan Reynolds, and third baseman Nick Yorke each drove in two or more runs.
My prediction: Tigers win (51¢). Despite a recent 3-1 stretch, the Pirates haven't been great since the All-Star break, going just 11-18 in that span. While Valdez has been inconsistent for the Tigers, Mlodzinski has allowed four or more earned runs in back-to-back starts, both of which were losses. For more MLB analysis, head over to my home run predictions today.
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⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Tigers vs. Pirates?
More than $50,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 48% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 49¢, you can instantly get more than $6,000 filled.
The Tigers have had a first-inning run scored in 48% of their games, while the Pirates have seen a first-inning run in 47% of theirs. Valdez has not allowed a first-inning run in two of his last three starts, while Mlodzinski hasn't allowed one in four of his last five.
My prediction: No run in the first inning (52¢). Neither of these teams is great for playing YRFIs, and surprisingly, Mlodzinski and Valdez have both been solid during the first inning of their recent starts. The Pirates have scored a first-inning run in just one of their last seven games - give me the NRFI. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Tigers vs. Pirates win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 50% | 56% | ↓ 6% |
| Pirates | 50% | 44% | ↑ 6% |
📺 How to watch Tigers vs. Pirates
- Date: Monday, Aug. 17
- First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
- TV: ESPN
- Tigers starter: Framber Valdez (7-8, 4.26 ERA)
- Pirates starter: Carmen Mlodzinski (6-5, 3.79 ERA)
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