MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Thursday, Aug. 20)
Nine Unders hit Wednesday, so you can only imagine how my MLB home run picks did. That's OK, though. We have a nine-game slate today to bounce back. My home run predictions today feature Yordan Alvarez, Ben Rice and Daulton Varsho, who are all mispriced at DraftKings.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 20
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez to homer (+253 via DraftKings) | 0.79u β 2u | Alvarez has a .724 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Rodriguez throws 54.4% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Ben Rice to homer (+351 via DraftKings) | 0.57u β 2u | Bradish throws 57.2% fastballs to LHH, and Rice is slugging .637 vs. fastballs. |
| Daulton Varsho to homer (+552 via DraftKings) | 0.36u β 2u | Varsho has homered once already vs. Rodriguez in 11 at-bats. |
Total wagered: 1.72 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+253)
The Astros and Angels wrap up a three-game set today, and Alvarez has yet to homer in this series.
Good thing for us, he's facing Grayson Rodriguez today, who throws fastballs 54.4% of the time to left-handed hitters. Alvarez has a .724 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, so it makes sense why he's the favorite to homer in this matchup.
FanDuel, which is known as the best rec book for pricing props, has him listed at +240. DraftKings' +253 odds for Alvarez to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💵 SBR Edge: Fading Rodriguez
Rodriguez has allowed six home runs across his last six starts and ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+351)
Rice is slugging .637 against fastballs, and today, he's up against Kyle Bradish, who throws fastballs 57.2% of the time to left-handed hitters. The Yankees designated hitter has been seeing the ball well, too.
He's homered in two of his last three games, including a 447-foot bomb on a four-seamer from Orioles RHP Chris Bassitt on Wednesday. FanDuel lists Rice at +330. His odds to homer (+351) at DraftKings are the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+552)
Yes, I know, Varsho hasn't homered in any of his last seven games, but he's had success against Rodriguez in the past, and +552 is too good of a price to pass up.
In just 11 career at-bats, Varsho has homered and tripled against Rodriguez, and with tonight's total set as high as 8.5 at Pinnacle, he has a good shot to do so again tonight. Varsho to homer (+552) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps, as he's just +540 at FanDuel.
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into LJ Blut's best NRFI bets today.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Yordan Alvarez to homer
- Ben Rice to homer
- Daulton Varsho to homer
Best odds: +8469 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-48-4 | -8.96 units β | -14.2% β |
| Player props | 8-36-3 | -6.36 units β | -20.4% β |
| Game props | 7-5 | -0.55 units β | -2.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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