Braves vs. White Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Aug. 20

The Atlanta Braves stop off for a quick makeup game from an earlier rainout on June 11 to face the Chicago White Sox. My Braves vs. White Sox prediction backs the home underdogs given this scheduling quirk, and I like Anthony Kay to stay under his projected earned-run total. I also add Miguel Vargas to provide offense for the White Sox and to homer with the last of my MLB picks.

Opposing Kay on the mound for Atlanta is Grant Holmes. The Braves are as high as a -120 moneyline betting favorite ahead of first pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited).

⚾ Braves vs. White Sox picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. White Sox?

Atlanta has been far from dominant since an eight-game winning streak, and I expect the travel with this being the second of three cities in three days for the Braves will start catching up to them.

Score prediction: White Sox 6, Braves 3

💰 Braves vs. White Sox prediction & best bet

White Sox ML (+101)

Atlanta has lost eight of 10 since an eight-game winning streak. It has played to its competition of late, as seven of its last 12 games have been decided by two or fewer runs. 

Chicago did well to snap an eight-game losing streak at Wrigley Field yesterday, beating its crosstown rivals for the first time since August 15, 2023. It also has a huge travel advantage, playing at home despite a road series to start the week. Meanwhile, the Braves are giving up an off day and traveling between Minnesota and Milwaukee to play this one game.

🔥 Best Braves vs. White Sox player prop bet

Anthony Kay Under 2.5 earned runs (-131)

Anthony Kay has a 4.01 ERA, but that is still largely a remnant of a poor beginning to the season. The southpaw has pitched to a more respectable 3.46 ERA since the start of May. He has offset a low K/9 rate in that span (7.75 K/9) with a 46.8% ground ball rate, and he has also stranded 79.9% of baserunners.

Kay faces a Braves offense that ranks 22nd in batting average and 26th in wRC+ since the start of their poor 2-8 stretch. He showed his mettle in what was his biggest start of the season in a matchup against the second-place Guardians two outings ago, throwing a quality start with two earned runs allowed and 11 swings and misses. 

💣 Braves vs. White Sox home run prediction

Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+518)

Miguel Vargas had never hit more than seven homers in any of his first three big-league seasons. Clearly, he has figured something out, as he hit 16 home runs last year and is four away from doubling that previous single-season high this year.

Hitting home runs starts with elevating the baseball, and Vargas’ 36.7% fly ball rate is on pace to be a career-high (not counting the 40% fly ball rate from when he had just 50 plate appearances in 2022).

Grant Holmes is a good bet to oblige in allowing home runs, which he has done four times over his previous four starts. Holmes also doesn’t limit hard contact, with a 16th-percentile hard-hit rate and a third-percentile average exit velocity.  

🚀 Braves vs. White Sox same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping Chicago’s chances of pulling the home upset. But perhaps the White Sox should be given more respect when playing at Rate Field, as their 37 home wins are second-most among AL teams. 

This SGP follows the trend that Kay has stayed Under this projected earned runs total in six of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Vargas has hit safely in nine of 10 games, so I’m expecting positive regression from him driving in a run in just three of those contests.

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Atlanta would tie a season-long losing streak (four games) with another defeat today, but that doesn’t influence my wagering for this afternoon tilt. 

The Braves proved to be a streaky team despite all their successes in the first half of the season with five separate losing streaks of three or more games. Therefore, I’m treating this game as an individual matchup and not getting caught up in the fact that this would only be Atlanta’s second four-game losing streak. After all, Chicago is 3-0 in Kay’s last three starts, and have won five of his last six.

📊 Live Braves vs. White Sox odds

The lines for this game range from a virtual pick’em at FanDuel with each side having -108 moneyline odds to Atlanta as big as -120 betting favorites (54.55% implied odds) at bet365. I was happy to place my White Sox wager late Wednesday night, as the line had already started shading to Chicago at BetMGM, moving from +100 to -105.

As of Wednesday night, the total was aligned at an O/U of 8.5 across the market, despite 61% of the wagers backing the Over. Chicago has been one of the most profitable teams to the Over this season, but it would likely take a lot more betting support (or sharp action) for any top sports betting site to move to an O/U of 9.

📈 Braves vs. White Sox betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. White Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. White Sox

• Date: Thursday, August 20
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rate Field (Chicago)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Braves starter: Grant Holmes (7-5, 3.82 ERA)
• White Sox starter: Anthony Kay (9-5, 4.01)