Nationals vs. Rangers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Aug. 20)

Our Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers win probability continues in a game with important implications, as both teams look to build momentum and capitalize on a valuable opportunity. The starting pitchers will play a major role, with each offense needing to find success early while avoiding costly mistakes.

Texas enters as the clear favorite according to the prediction market, holding a 61% chance to win compared to Washington’s 39%. Those percentages give the Rangers the edge, but the Nationals remain firmly in contention, making this matchup one worth watching from the opening pitch.

🏆 Who will win Nationals vs. Rangers? Live MLB win probability

The game market gives the Texas Rangers a clear edge against the Washington Nationals, with the Rangers carrying a 61% win probability compared to 39% for Washington. Texas will send Jacob deGrom to the mound, while the Nationals counter with left-hander Andrew Alvarez.

DeGrom enters with an 8-8 record, 3.95 ERA and 147 strikeouts, while Alvarez is 2-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 69 strikeouts. The percentages suggest bettors should favor Texas, with the Rangers’ starting pitching and home-field advantage making them the market’s preferred side.

My prediction: Rangers (61%) win. The Rangers will win because their starting pitching gives them the edge, while their offense has the potential to capitalize on mistakes and create early pressure. With Texas holding a 61% win probability compared to 39% for the Nationals, the market also supports the Rangers as the stronger side.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Nationals vs. Rangers?

The home run market is unusually limited for this Rangers-Nationals matchup, with Kalshi only offering a contract on Washington shortstop CJ Abrams. Abrams is listed at an 18% probability to hit a home run, making him the lone player available in this specific market. That number gives Abrams a meaningful chance to go deep, especially considering his power production this season. He entered the series with 29 home runs and a .531 slugging percentage, showing he has been one of Washington’s most dangerous power bats. With limited options, Abrams stands out as the market’s only selection tonight.

My prediction: CJ Abrams (18%) to hit a home run. CJ Abrams is a strong home run candidate because he has already launched 29 homers this season while posting a .531 slugging percentage, giving him plenty of proven power. With Kalshi offering Abrams at an 18% home run probability, the market is giving him a meaningful chance to leave the yard tonight.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Nationals vs. Rangers?

The YRFI/NRFI market favors a scoreless opening inning in Thursday’s Rangers-Nationals matchup, with NRFI priced at 55% and YRFI at 45%. Jacob deGrom gets the start for Texas, while Andrew Alvarez takes the mound for Washington, giving this market two pitchers capable of keeping the first inning quiet.

DeGrom’s strikeout ability is particularly valuable early, while Alvarez has posted a solid 3.72 ERA this season. With NRFI holding the higher probability, the market suggests bettors should lean toward neither team scoring in the opening frame tonight.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (55%). The NRFI is appealing because Jacob deGrom gives Texas a dominant strikeout arm capable of shutting down Washington’s top hitters in the opening frame. Andrew Alvarez has also posted a solid 3.72 ERA, while current NRFI analysis identifies this matchup as one of Thursday’s stronger candidates for a scoreless first inning.

📊 Nationals vs. Rangers win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Nationals vs. Rangers

• Date: Thursday, August 20
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Globe Life Field (Arlington, TX)
• TV: MLB.TV
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Nationals starter: Andrew Alvarez (2-4, 3.72 ERA)
• Rangers starter: Jacob DeGrom (8-8, 3.95 ERA)