Our Vikings vs. Broncos parlay predictions are based on the best NFL odds, and we see Minnesota's moneyline odds as good value in what could be a back-and-forth affair on Sunday night.
We're treated to an intriguing Sunday prime-time affair when the 6-4 Vikings take on the 4-5 Broncos. They're two of the hottest teams in the league, as both are riding impressive winning streaks.
However, the Broncos have struggled to meet expectations as home favorites this season. Could that provide us with value on the Vikings?
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Vikings ML (+130) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over 41.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joshua Dobbs Over 30.5 rushing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +525 via FanDuel
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SGP predictions for Vikings vs. Broncos
The Broncos have tightened things up of late, winning three consecutive games. However, I still get the sense they’ve benefitted from opponents simply not playing at their best level during those wins. The Buffalo Bills did everything in their power to give away the game last Monday and the Kansas City Chiefs laid an inexplicable egg in the previous week at Denver.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are vibing, claiming five straight wins and managing to maintain their momentum through an injury to Kirk Cousins. Joshua Dobbs has ascended to folk-hero status in Minnesota.
The Vikings are 1-0-1 ATS as away underdogs, pulling off one outright win in those two opportunities. That’s a better trend than Denver has endured entering Sunday night, as the Broncos are 1-3 ATS as home favorites this season.
Between two teams on solid recent trajectories, I trust the substance behind the revival for the Vikings more than I do the Broncos. Both DraftKings and FanDuel list Minnesota at +130 odds on the moneyline.
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Over 41.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Though both teams' games have trended Under this season (Minnesota is 3-7 to the Over while Denver is 4-5), this number feels too low for Sunday night. Half of Minnesota’s games have gone Over this total on the year, with two in a row doing so since the arrival of Dobbs.
Although the Denver defense has forced its games to trend below this line in recent weeks, six of the Broncos' games have sailed Over this total on the season. Considering the way the Vikings have operated with Dobbs at the helm, the scoring pace should be enough to find its way into the mid-40s.
A potential 23-20 final score feels like a legitimate way to clear this total, so we like the total up to 42.5. At DraftKings, the number sits at 42. We get it even lower at FanDuel, with the total at 41.5.
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Denver's defense has clamped down in recent weeks against opposing passing offenses, but the Broncos still have been getting gashed on the ground. Denver is allowing 158.3 rushing yards per game this season, nearly 20 more yards than the 31-ranked run defense.
Minnesota’s running back room is in flux due to injury, so we don’t see any rushing props for Viking RBs at DraftKings or FanDuel. We do, however, get the chance to back Joshua Dobbs on the ground; he’s scampered for 66 and 44 yards, respectively, in his two games with the Vikings.
DraftKings lists the Dobbs rushing prop at an attainable 34.5 yards, but we get much better value at FanDuel at 30.5 rushing yards. Since both SGPs come out to +525, we’re playing this parlay at FanDuel to take advantage of the better line.
Vikings-Broncos parlay picks made 11/19/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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